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Is Hanrahan sort of right? Will climate change ruin us all?

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  • Kingwell, Ross S.

Abstract

The possible impacts of projected climate change on Australian agriculture are outlined. The characteristics of climate change that underpin the creation of economic impacts for agriculture are also described and discussed. Climate change is shown to generate spatially and temporally diverse impacts, with many regions likely to experience increased downside risk in agricultural production. Some regions, such as south-west Australia, are projected to be particularly at risk of adverse outcomes associated with climate change. The likely gradual unfolding of climate change, however, may provide farmers in many regions and industries with sufficient time to utilise or develop adaptation strategies. Many of these strategies are likely to be based on farmers’ current responses to climate variability. Investment in R&D and innovation are likely to be important ingredients in facilitating farmers’ adaptation to climate change. Farmers are likely to face additional costs of capital adjustment due to climate change and investment in long-lived climate-dependent agricultural assets such as irrigation infrastructure, new vineyards and timber plantations will become more problematic. Investing in ecological assets in rural regions, especially where these assets may become stranded by climate change, is also increasingly made problematic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Is Hanrahan sort of right? Will climate change ruin us all?," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137961, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare06:137961
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/137961
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Quiggin & John Horowitz, 2003. "Costs of adjustment to climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(4), pages 429-446, December.
    2. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
    3. McCown, R. L. & Hammer, G. L. & Hargreaves, J. N. G. & Holzworth, D. P. & Freebairn, D. M., 1996. "APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 255-271.
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    5. Michele John & David Pannell & Ross Kingwell, 2005. "Climate Change and the Economics of Farm Management in the Face of Land Degradation: Dryland Salinity in Western Australia," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(4), pages 443-459, December.
    6. Petersen, Elizabeth & Schilizzi, Steven & Bennett, David, 2003. "The impacts of greenhouse gas abatement policies on the predominantly grazing systems of south-western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 369-386, December.
    7. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2001. "Attribution and other problems in assessing the returns to agricultural R&D," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 141-152, September.
    8. Roxana Julia & Faye Duchin, 2005. "World Trade as the Adjustment Mechanism of Agriculture to Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0507, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    9. Roger Jones, 2001. "An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 197-230, March.
    10. Baranzini, Andrea & Chesney, Marc & Morisset, Jacques, 2003. "The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 691-701, June.
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