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An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments

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  • Roger Jones

Abstract

This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Jones, 2001. "An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 197-230, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:197-230
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011148019213
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    1. L Sklair, 1996. "What is the Global?," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 28(11), pages 1970-1972, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Monika Winn & Manfred Kirchgeorg & Andrew Griffiths & Martina K. Linnenluecke & Elmar Günther, 2011. "Impacts from climate change on organizations: a conceptual foundation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 157-173, March.
    2. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    3. Huicong Jia & Fang Chen & Enyu Du, 2021. "Adaptation to Disaster Risk—An Overview," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Sarah Wolf, 2012. "Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1099-1113, April.
    5. K.S. Kavi Kumar & Richard J.T. Klein & Cezar Ionescu & Jochen Hinkel & Rupert Klein, 2007. "Vulnerability To Poverty And Vulnerability To Climate Change: Conceptual Framework, Measurement And Synergies In Policy," Working Papers 2007-019, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    6. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Is Hanrahan sort of right? Will climate change ruin us all?," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137961, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 14.
    8. Elżbieta Sobczak & Bartosz Bartniczak & Andrzej Raszkowski, 2020. "Aging Society and the Selected Aspects of Environmental Threats: Evidence from Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Todd S. Bridges & Daniel Kovacs & Matthew D. Wood & Kelsie Baker & Gordon Butte & Sarah Thorne & Igor Linkov, 2013. "Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 376-390, September.
    10. Albert Adu-Gyamfi & Michael Poku-Boansi & Leonard Darpoh & Michael Osei Asibey & Justice Kufour Owusu-Ansah, 2023. "Rainfall challenges and strategies to improve housing construction in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Ghana," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 1155-1190, August.
    11. M. Das & P. Srivastava & A. Rej & Md. Mandal & A. Sharma, 2016. "A framework for assessing vulnerability of inland fisheries to impacts of climate variability in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 279-296, February.
    12. Karly Bitsura-Meszaros & Erin Seekamp & Mae Davenport & Jordan W. Smith, 2019. "A PGIS-Based Climate Change Risk Assessment Process for Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Dependent Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Suresh Chaudhary & Yukuan Wang & Amod Mani Dixit & Narendra Raj Khanal & Pei Xu & Kun Yan & Qin Liu & Yafeng Lu & Ming Li, 2019. "Eco-Environmental Risk Evaluation for Land Use Planning in Areas of Potential Farmland Abandonment in the High Mountains of Nepal Himalayas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Fahim Nawroz Tonmoy & David Rissik & J. P. Palutikof, 2019. "A three-tier risk assessment process for climate change adaptation at a local scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(4), pages 539-557, April.
    15. Carter, Chris & Crean, Jason & Kingwell, Ross S. & Hertzler, Greg, 2006. "Managing and Sharing the Risks of Drought in Australia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25319, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay & Cecilia Conde, 2012. "A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 455-479, July.
    17. Dagmar Schröter & Colin Polsky & Anthony Patt, 2005. "Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 573-595, October.
    18. Timothy F. Smith & Dana C. Thomsen & Steve Gould & Klaus Schmitt & Bianca Schlegel, 2013. "Cumulative Pressures on Sustainable Livelihoods: Coastal Adaptation in the Mekong Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, January.
    19. Valente, Donatella & Miglietta, Pier Paolo & Porrini, Donatella & Pasimeni, Maria Rita & Zurlini, Giovanni & Petrosillo, Irene, 2019. "A first analysis on the need to integrate ecological aspects into financial insurance," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 392(C), pages 117-127.
    20. Michal Petr & Luc Boerboom & Anne Veen & Duncan Ray, 2014. "A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 791-803, June.

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