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Combining biophysical and price simulations to assess the economics of long-term crop rotations

Author

Listed:
  • Murray-Prior, Roy B.
  • Whish, J.
  • Carberry, Peter S.
  • Dalgleish, N.

Abstract

Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated with yields derived from biophysical simulations in APSIM over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from the Jimbour Plains farmer group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual GMs and distributions of GMs with box and whisker plots found to be suitable. Mean-standard deviation and first and second-degree stochastic dominance efficiency measures were also calculated. Including lucerne in the rotations improved some sustainability indicators but reduced profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray-Prior, Roy B. & Whish, J. & Carberry, Peter S. & Dalgleish, N., 2003. "Combining biophysical and price simulations to assess the economics of long-term crop rotations," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57927, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare03:57927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meinke, H. & Baethgen, W. E. & Carberry, P. S. & Donatelli, M. & Hammer, G. L. & Selvaraju, R. & Stockle, C. O., 2001. "Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 493-513.
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