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Risk Perception And The Analysis Of Risk Attitudes

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  • John Quiggin

Abstract

Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.
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Suggested Citation

  • John Quiggin, 1981. "Risk Perception And The Analysis Of Risk Attitudes," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(2), pages 160-169, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:25:y:1981:i:2:p:160-169
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1981.tb00393.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dillon, John L., 1971. "An Expository Review of Bernoullian Decision Theory in Agriculture: Is Utility Futility?," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 01), pages 1-78, March.
    2. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279.
    3. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    4. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    5. Bond, Gary E. & Wonder, Bernard, 1980. "Risk Attitudes Amongst Australian Farmers," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
    7. Handa, Jagdish, 1977. "Risk, Probabilities, and a New Theory of Cardinal Utility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 97-122, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Strappazzon, Loris & Ha, Arthur & Eigenraam, Mark & Duke, Charlotte & Stoneham, Gary, 2002. "The Allocation of Property Rights when One Action Produces a Public and a Private Good," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 174045, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. James Cox & Vjollca Sadiraj & Ulrich Schmidt, 2015. "Paradoxes and mechanisms for choice under risk," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 215-250, June.
    3. Hashimzade, Nigar & Myles, Gareth D. & Rablen, Matthew D., 2016. "Predictive analytics and the targeting of audits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 130-145.
    4. Cason, Timothy N. & Gangadharan, Lata & Duke, Charlotte, 2003. "A laboratory study of auctions for reducing non-point source pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 446-471, November.
    5. Hashimzade, Nigar & Myles, Gareth D. & Page, Frank & Rablen, Matthew D., 2014. "Social networks and occupational choice: The endogenous formation of attitudes and beliefs about tax compliance," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 134-146.

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