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Intra-Annual Timing of Discretionary Agricultural Trade Interventions

Author

Listed:
  • MIller, Steve
  • Koppa, Nisha
  • Binte Ali, Suraiya
  • Jarrett, Uchechukwu

Abstract

Weexamine the intra-annual timing of discretionary agricultural trade interventions for maize, rice, and wheat. Relating intervention timing to production cycles reveals that many interventions occur during growing seasons when policymakers lack complete harvest information. Based on this observation, we ask whether hypothesized drivers of intervention– international price and domestic yield– are more strongly related to intervention probability during different parts of the production cycle. We find strong associations between intervention and two yield signals at different times: realized yield with some delay after harvest and satellite-derived proxies for crop conditions during the season. Prices are consistently associated with intervention throughout the year.

Suggested Citation

  • MIller, Steve & Koppa, Nisha & Binte Ali, Suraiya & Jarrett, Uchechukwu, 2026. "Intra-Annual Timing of Discretionary Agricultural Trade Interventions," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404680, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404680
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404680
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/404680/files/177634_197948_115232_AgTradePolicyTiming_Updated-compressed.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Binte Ali, Suraiya & Jarrett, Uchechukwu & Koppa, Nisha & Miller, Steve J., 2026. "Hedging against Climate Change Risk with Trade: Heat stress and Global Agricultural Markets," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404678, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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