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Integrated Modeling of Policy Changes: The Case of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccination in Brazil

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  • de Menezes, Taís C.
  • DeLay, Nathan
  • Countryman, Amanda M.

Abstract

This study evaluates the economic impact of Brazil’s phased suspension of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccination. We focus on the May 2021 certification by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), which recognized four early-adopting states as FMD-free without vaccination, and assess its effects on domestic beef and pork production and export unit values. Using a panel of monthly, state-level data from 2017 to 2024, we estimate treatment effects via a two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences model, supplemented by synthetic control and placebo tests. The estimated shocks are then introduced into the GTAP computable general equilibrium model, version 11, updated to 2024 and reaggregated to 12 sectors and 20 regions, to simulate potential global responses in beef and pork prices, bilateral trade flows, and welfare. Our findings offer insights for animal health policy and trade strategy, particularly for export-oriented emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • de Menezes, Taís C. & DeLay, Nathan & Countryman, Amanda M., 2025. "Integrated Modeling of Policy Changes: The Case of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccination in Brazil," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360640, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360640
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360640
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