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Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania

Author

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  • Christopher Adam
  • David Kwimbere
  • Wilfred Mbowe
  • Stephen O’Connell

Abstract

We develop an empirical representation of inflation in Tanzania for the decade from 2001, estimating ‘multiple-determinant’ single-equation models for month-on-month headline inflation and its principal components (food, energy and core inflation). Our results suggest that while supply-side factors, including yield variability and international price arbitrage, play a major role in determining domestic food and fuel inflation (which together account for almost 60 percent of the total CPI basket), demand-side factors amenable to policy intervention by the monetary authorities anchor core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Adam & David Kwimbere & Wilfred Mbowe & Stephen O’Connell, 2012. "Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania," Working Paper Series 441, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:441
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 1997/145, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cockx, Lara & De Weerdt, Joachim, 2016. "From Corn to Popcorn? Urbanization and food consumption in Sub-Sahara Africa: Evidence from rural-urban migrants in Tanzania," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 249270, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    2. Ayala Wineman & Thomas S Jayne, 2018. "Land Prices Heading Skyward? An Analysis of Farmland Values across Tanzania," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 187-214.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Rachel Sebudde, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Edgar Edwin Twine, 2016. "Production and Consumption Responses to Policy Interventions in Tanzania's Dairy Industry," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1-2), pages 81-102, June.
    5. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.
    6. Nissanke, Machiko, 2019. "Exploring macroeconomic frameworks conducive to structural transformation of sub-Saharan African economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 103-116.
    7. Lara Cockx & Liesbeth Colen & Joachim De Weerdt & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2019. "Urbanization as a driver of changing food demand in Africa: Evidence from rural-urban migration in Tanzania," JRC Research Reports JRC107918, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Rafael Portillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Stephen O’Connell & Richard Peck, 2016. "Implications of food subsistence for monetary policy and inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 782-810.
    9. Cockx, Lara & Colen, Liesbeth & De Weerdt, Joachim, 2018. "From corn to popcorn? Urbanization and dietary change: Evidence from rural-urban migrants in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 140-159.

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