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Disaggregated Agricultural Output and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Evidence from a Linear Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Lawal, Wasiu Omotayo

    (Department of Economics, Al-Hikmah University)

  • Abubakar, Zainab

    (Department of Economics, Federal University Dutse)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of agricultural output on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1980 to 2024. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics. The stationarity properties of the variables were tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and KPSS tests. The cointegration results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between agricultural output variables and real gross domestic product. The empirical findings indicate that crop production and forestry output exert significant positive effects on GDP, while livestock and fishery outputs show positive but statistically insignificant impacts. Inflation also demonstrates a positive and significant influence on GDP, whereas interest rate and exchange rate effects are negligible. Short-run dynamics reveal that variations in livestock and crop production significantly influence economic growth. Diagnostic tests confirm the stability of the model, absence of serial correlation, homoskedasticity, and normally distributed residuals. Overall, the findings highlight the critical role of agriculture, particularly crop and forestry subsectors, in driving Nigeria’s economic performance and underscore the need for policies that strengthen agricultural productivity, value chain development, and sectoral integration to support sustainable economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawal, Wasiu Omotayo & Abubakar, Zainab, 2026. "Disaggregated Agricultural Output and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Evidence from a Linear Framework," East African Finance Journal, East African Finance Journal, vol. 5(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:cwk:eafjke:2026-12
    DOI: 10.59413/eafj/v5.i1.12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fadare, Olusegun & Srinivasan, Chittur & Zanello, Giacomo, 2024. "Livestock diversification mitigates the impact of farmer-herder conflicts on animal-source foods consumption in Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
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    4. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    5. Bogdan Bogdanov, 2010. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle: an Empirical Study on Developed and Developing Countries," Working paper series 12010en, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
    6. World Bank, 2023. "World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2023 : Migrants, réfugiés et société]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 39696, April.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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