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Publications

by alumni of

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile → Facultad de Ciencia Económicas y Administrativas

Pontifical Catholic University of Chile → School of Economics and Business Administration

These are publications listed in RePEc written by alumni of the above institution who are registered with the RePEc Author Service and listed in the RePEc Genealogy. List of alumni. For a list of publications by current members of the department, see here. Register yourself.

This page is updated in the first days of each month.

| Working papers | Journal articles |

Working papers

2026

  1. Nicolás Leiva & Carlos A. Medel, 2026, "Un sistema de proyección de demanda por efectivo en Chile: Actualización y propuesta," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 1077, Mar.

2025

  1. Carlos A. Medel, 2025, "This Time is Global: Synchronisation in Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 1052, Aug.
  2. Carlos A. Medel, 2025, "Exogenous Influences on Long-term Inflation Expectation Deviations: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 1056, Oct.

2023

  1. Monroy-Taborda Sebastián, 2023, "Bank Runs and Inequality," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política, number 4672, Nov.

2021

  1. Carlos Medel, 2021, "Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within a Consumer Perceptions Survey: Microdata Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 899, Jan.
  2. Carlos Medel, 2021, "Forecasting Brazilian Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Predictive Role of Trading Partners," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 900, Feb.

2020

  1. Fernando Faure & Carlos A. Medel, 2020, "Does the Exposure to the Business Cycle Improve Consumer Perceptions for Forecasting? Microdata Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 888, Sep.

2018

  1. Nicolas Chanut & Mario Marcel & Carlos Medel, 2018, "Can Economic Perception Surveys Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 824, Jul.
  2. Carlos Medel, 2018, "Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 825, Aug.

2017

  1. Carlos Madeira & Pablo Furche & Mario Marcel & Carlos Medel, 2017, "FinTech y el Futuro de la Banca Central Central de Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 63, Aug.
  2. Mario Marcel & Carlos Medel & Jessica Mena, 2017, "Determinantes de la Inflación de Servicios en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 803, Jun.
  3. Carlos Medel, 2017, "Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 805, Jun.

2016

  1. Carlos Medel & Gilmour Camilleri & Hsiang-Ling Hsu & Stefan Kania & Miltiadis Touloumtzoglou, 2016, "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-Based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 784, May.
  2. Carlos Medel, 2016, "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 785, May.
  3. Carlos Medel, 2016, "Un Análisis de la Capacidad Predictiva del Precio del Cobre sobre la Inflación Global," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 786, May.
  4. Carlos Medel, 2016, "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 791, Oct.
  5. Rodrigo Alfaro & Carlos Medel & Carola Moreno, 2016, "An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 795, Dec.
  6. Dicarlo, Emanuele & Lo Bello, Salvatore & Monroy-Taborda, Sebastian & Oviedo, Ana Maria & Sanchez Puerta, Maria Laura & Santos, Indhira, 2016, "The Skill Content of Occupations across Low and Middle Income Countries: Evidence from Harmonized Data," IZA Discussion Papers, IZA Network @ LISER, number 10224, Sep.
  7. Valerio,Alexandria & Sanchez Puerta,MariaLaura & Tognatta,Namrata Raman & Monroy Taborda,Sebastian, 2016, "Are there skills payoffs in low- and middle-income countries ? empirical evidence using STEP data," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, number 7879, Nov.

2015

  1. Carlos Medel & Pablo Pincheira, 2015, "The Out-of-Sample Performance of An Exact Median-Unbiased Estimator for the Near-Unity Ar(1)Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 768, Sep.
  2. Carlos Medel, 2015, "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 769, Sep.
  3. Carlos Medel, 2015, "Fuelling Future Prices: Oil Price and Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 770, Sep.
  4. Medel, Carlos, 2015, "Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65298, Jun.
  5. Medel, Carlos A., 2015, "A Critical Review of Posch, J. and F. Rumler (2015), 'Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,' Journal of Forecasting 34(2): 145-62," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65665, Jul.
  6. Katia Herrera-Sosa & Alexandria Valerio & Sebastian Monroy-Taborda & Dandan Chen, 2015, "Armenia Skills toward Employment and Productivity," World Bank Publications - Reports, The World Bank Group, number 25199, Jan.

2014

  1. Carlos Medel, 2014, "The Typical Spectral Shape of An Economic Variable: A Visual Guide with 100 Examples," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 719, Jan.
  2. Carlos Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo Pincheira, 2014, "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 725, Mar.
  3. Carlos Medel, 2014, "Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 735, Aug.
  4. Medel, Carlos A., 2014, "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 57053, Jul.

2012

  1. Carlos Medel, 2012, "How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 657, Jan.
  2. Carlos Medel, 2012, "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 658, Jan.
  3. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos Medel, 2012, "Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 669, Jul.
  4. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2012, "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 677, Aug.
  5. Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2012, "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 679, Nov.

2011

  1. Marcus Cobb & Gonzalo Echavarría & Pablo Filippi & Macarena García & Carolina Godoy & Wildo González & Carlos Medel & Marcela Urrutia, 2011, "Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: a Case for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 626, May.
  2. Yan Carrière–Swallow & Carlos Medel, 2011, "Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 647, Nov.
  3. Medel, Carlos A., 2011, "The Effects of Global Warming on Fisheries," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 28373, Jan.
  4. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Medel, Carlos, 2011, "Incertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2011-016, Nov.

2010

  1. Carlos Medel & Marcela Urrutia, 2010, "Proyección Agregada y Desagregada del PIB Chileno con Procedimientos Automatizados de Series de Tiempo," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 577, May.

2009

  1. Carlos Medel, 2009, "Efectos del Calentamiento Global sobre la Industria Pesquera," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 534, Dec.

2007

  1. Medel, Carlos A., 2007, "Guía de Ejercicios: Introducción a la Macroeconomía
    [Exercises Guide: Principles of Macroeconomics]    ," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41401, Aug, revised Aug 2007.

Journal articles

2025

  1. Carlos A. Medel, 2025, "Exogenous influences on long-term inflation expectation deviations: Evidence from Chile," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, volume 25, issue supplemen.

2022

  1. Carlos A. Medel, 2022, "Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within an EmploymentSurvey: Microdata Evidence from Chile," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, volume 45, issue 89, pages 184-216.

2020

  1. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020, "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, volume 35, issue 2, pages 57-90, October.

2019

  1. Nicolás Chanut & Mario Marcel C. & Carlos A. Medel V., 2019, "Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, volume 22, issue 3, pages 034-097, December.

2018

  1. Carlos Medel, 2018, "An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, volume 21, issue 2, pages 128-152, August.
  2. Carlos A. Medel, 2018, "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), volume 14, issue 1, pages 47-87, April, DOI: 10.1007/s41549-018-0023-3.
  3. Carlos A. Medel, 2018, "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 32, issue 3, pages 331-371, July, DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2018.1501589.

2017

  1. Carlos Medel, 2017, "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, volume 20, issue 3, pages 004-050, December.
  2. Pablo Furche & Carlos Madeira & Mario Marcel & Carlos A. Medel, 2017, "Fintech y la banca central en la encrucijada," Estudios Públicos, Centro de Estudios Públicos, volume 0, issue 148, pages 39-78.
  3. Rodrigo Alfaro Alfaro & Carlos A. Medel & Carola Moreno, 2017, "An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, volume 32, issue 2, pages 131-153, October.

2016

  1. Carlos A. Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016, "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, volume 19, issue 2, pages 120-146, June.
  2. Carlos A. Medel, 2016, "Un análisis de la capacidad predictiva del precio del cobre sobre la inflación global," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, volume 19, issue 2, pages 128-153, August.
  3. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2016, "Forecasting with a Random Walk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, volume 66, issue 6, pages 539-564, December.
  4. Carlos A. Medel & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016, "The out-of-sample performance of an exact median-unbiased estimator for the near-unity AR(1) model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 23, issue 2, pages 126-131, February, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1057890.

2015

  1. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015, "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, volume 65, issue 1, pages 2-29, January.
  2. Carlos A. Medel, 2015, "Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, volume 30, issue 1, pages 57-72, Abril.

2014

  1. Carlos A. Medel, 2014, "The typical spectral shape of an economic variable: a visual guide," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 21, issue 14, pages 1017-1024, September, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.904486.

2013

  1. Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2013, "Does the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, volume 28, issue 1, pages 47-64, April.
  2. Carlos A. Medel, 2013, "How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., volume 50, issue 1, pages 133-161, May.

2011

  1. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011, "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, volume 14, issue 3, pages 75-82, December.
  2. Carlos A. Medel Vera, 2011, "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál utilizar para predecir el PIB chileno?," Monetaria, CEMLA, volume 0, issue 4, pages 591-615, octubre-d.

2010

  1. Carlos A. Medel V. & Michael Pedersen, 2010, "Incertidumbre en las Series Desestacionalizadas de Actividad y Demanda en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, volume 13, issue 1, pages 63-72, April.
  2. Marcus Cobb C. & Carlos A. Medel V., 2010, "Una Estimación del Impacto del Efecto Calendario en Series Desestacionalizadas Chilenas de Actividad y Demanda," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, volume 13, issue 3, pages 95-103, December.

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