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Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: a Case for Chile


  • Marcus Cobb
  • Gonzalo Echavarría
  • Pablo Filippi
  • Macarena García
  • Carolina Godoy
  • Wildo González
  • Carlos Medel
  • Marcela Urrutia


The aim of this document is to provide a forecasting tool that facilitates understanding economic developments in a timely manner. This is pursued through the Bridge Model approach by using it to relate a large set of monthly indicators to Chilean GDP and its main components. The outcome is a set of simple equations that characterize reasonably well total GDP and the feasible supply- and demand-side components based on a small set of relevant indicators. The selected equations generally provide better short-term forecasts than simple autoregressive models. However, if needed, the equation selection methodology is straightforward enough to update the equations easily making it an attractive tool for real-time forecasting.

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  • Marcus Cobb & Gonzalo Echavarría & Pablo Filippi & Macarena García & Carolina Godoy & Wildo González & Carlos Medel & Marcela Urrutia, 2011. "Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: a Case for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 626, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:626

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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Gabriela Inchauste & Bernardin Akitoby & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta, 2004. "The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/202, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Riccardo Fiorito, 1997. "Stylized Facts of Government Finance in the G-7," IMF Working Papers 97/142, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1233-1249, September.
    9. Hercowitz, Z. & Strawczynski, M., 2001. "Fiscal Policy Dynamics with a Public-Debt Guideline," Papers 2001-1, Tel Aviv.
    10. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
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