Efectos del Calentamiento Global sobre la Industria Pesquera

This paper develops two models of fishery firms in order to understand and estimate the effect of global warming (CG) on their value. CG is defined as an additional increase in the average thermal temperature caused by CO2 emissions. Two effects on the biomass stem from this temperature increase that affect the fisheries’ value. The first, which makes it fluctuating, is a modification of the Pindyck (1984) model by including a variable for thermal temperature. Results indicate that the firm value can fall between 6% and 44% if the biomass decreases 1% and 20%, respectively. The second considers the reduction of the biomass itself, and belongs to a different version of the Smith (1968) model. Results here show that the same value reduction amounts to between 8% and 10% if temperature anomaly rises +1% and +8°C. Finally, estimates depend on two assumptions that rely on biological evidence: CG is a reality and temperature increases have a negative effect on the biomass.