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Publications

by members of

Government of Ireland → Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

These are publications listed in RePEc written by members of the above institution who are registered with the RePEc Author Service. Thus this compiles the works all those currently affiliated with this institution, not those affilated at the time of publication. List of registered members. Register yourself. Citation analysis. This page is updated in the first days of each month.
| Working papers | Journal articles | Books |

Working papers

2026

  1. Sebastian Barnes & Eddie Casey & Fred Hanmer, 2026, "Assessing risks to fiscal policy: Calibrating stochastic debt sustainability analysis models," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1871, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/546c0ea7-en.

2019

  1. Conefrey, Thomas, 2019, "New Risks and Old Problems: The Uncertain Outlook for Irish Agriculture," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 10/EL/19, Sep.
  2. Conefrey, Thomas & Hickey, Rónán & Walsh, Graeme, 2019, "Debt and Uncertainty: Managing Risks to the Public Finances," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 11/EL/19, Sep.
  3. Conefrey, Thomas & O'Reilly, Gerard & Walsh, Graeme, 2019, "Fiscal Windfalls: A Model-Based Analysis," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 3/EL/19, Apr.

2018

  1. Conefrey, Thomas & Walsh, Graeme, 2018, "A Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for Ireland," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 14/EL/18, Dec.
  2. Conefrey, Thomas, 2018, "Irish Agriculture: Economic Impact and Current Challenges," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 8/EL/18, Sep.

2017

  1. Byrne, Stephen & Conefrey, Thomas, 2017, "A Non-Employment Index for Ireland," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 09/EL/17, Aug.
  2. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017, "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP553, Feb.

2015

  1. Anderton, Robert & Maria, José R. & Karšay, Alexander & Szörfi, Béla & Périnet, Mathilde & Petroulas, Pavlos & Beck Nelleman, Peter & Conefrey, Thomas & Veiga, Cindy & Zizza, Roberta & Verdugo, Gregor, 2015, "Comparisons and contrasts of the impact of the crisis on euro area labour markets," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 159, Feb.
  2. Conroy, Niall, 2015, "Irish Quarterly Macroeconomic Data: A Volatility Analysis," Research Notes, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RN2015/2/1, May.

2014

  1. O'Toole, Conor & Casey, Eddie, 2014, "Bank-lending Constraints, Trade Credit and Alternative External Finance since the Financial Crisis: Evidence from European SMEs," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RB2014/2/3, May.
  2. Conefrey, Thomas & Smith, Richard, 2014, "On the Slide? Salary Scales for New Graduates 2004-2012," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 01/EL/14, Mar.
  3. Timoney, Kevin, 2014, "A Survey-based Analysis of Irish Savings Behaviour by Age," Research Notes, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RN2014/1/1, Apr.

2013

  1. Casey, Eddie & O'Toole, Conor, 2013, "Bank-lending constraints and alternative financing during the financial crisis: Evidence from European SMEs," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP450, Mar.
  2. Eddie Casey & Joe Durkan & David Duffy, 2013, "Fiscal Consolidation Strategies: Evidence from the International Experience," Open Access publications, School of Economics, University College Dublin, number 10197/5999.
  3. Conefrey, Thomas & Liebermann, Joelle, 2013, "A Monthly Business Cycle Indicator for Ireland," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 03/EL/13, Sep.
  4. Conefrey, Thomas & McCarthy, Yvonne & Sherman, Martina, 2013, "Re-employment Probabilities for Unemployed Workers in Ireland," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 06/EL/13, Nov.
  5. Browne, Frank & Conefrey, Thomas & Kennedy, Gerard, 2013, "Understanding Irish house price movements - a user cost of capital approach," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 04/RT/13, Jun.
  6. Conefrey, Thomas & Cronin, David, 2013, "Spillover in Euro Area Sovereign Bond Markets," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 05/RT/13, Jul.
  7. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tol, Richard S. J., 2013, "The Macro-Economic Effects of Raising Revenue through Different Taxes," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RB2012/4/2, Jan.
  8. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013, "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP460, Jul.
  9. Hyland, Marie & Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S. J., 2013, "The Potential for Segmentation of the Retail Market for Electricity in Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RB2013/2/9, Sep.
  10. Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Walsh, John R., 2013, "The PRTB Rent Index," Research Notes, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RN2013/2/4, Oct.
  11. Timoney, Kevin, 2013, "An Alternative Index of Industrial Production for Ireland using Manufacturing Wages," Research Notes, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RN2013/2/2, Oct.

2012

  1. Casey, Eddie, 2012, "Unit Labour Costs in Irish Manufacturing," Research Notes, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RN2012/2/1, Jun.
  2. Casey, Eddie & Duffy, David, 2012, "Trends in Irish Exports," Research Notes, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RN2012/3/1, Sep.
  3. Conefrey, Thomas & Whelan, Karl, 2012, "Supply, Demand and Prices in the US Housing Market," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 08/RT/12, Dec.
  4. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Se n & Walsh, Sharon, 2012, "Electrical Appliance Ownership and Usage in Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP421, Feb.
  5. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Savage, Michael & Walsh, John R. & Timoney, Kevin, 2012, "Work Incentives: New Evidence for Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BP2013/3, Sep.

2011

  1. Conefrey, Thomas, 2011, "Unemployment and Labour Force Participation during the Recession," Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, number 04/EL/11, Jun.
  2. Birmingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2011, "The Irish Macroeconomic Response to an External Shock with an Application to Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 10/RT/11, Oct.
  3. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2011, "The Macro-economic Impact of Changing the Rate of Corporation Tax," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RB2011/2/1, Aug.
  4. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Se n & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011, "Determinants of Vegetarianism and Partial Vegetarianism in Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP369, Jan.
  5. Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011, "Greener Homes: An Ex-Post Estimate of the Cost of Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction using Administrative Micro-Data from the Republic of Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP388.
  6. Leahy, Eimear & Devitt, Conor & Lyons, Se n & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011, "The Cost of Natural Gas Shortages in Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP397, Aug.

2010

  1. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2010, "Managing Housing Bubbles in Regional Economies Under EMU: Ireland and Spain," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RB2010/2/1, Jul.
  2. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Se n & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010, "An Estimate of the Number of Vegetarians in the World," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP340, Mar.
  3. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Se n & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010, "National Determinants of Vegetarianism," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP341, Apr.
  4. Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010, "An Estimate of the Value of Lost Load for Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP357, Oct.
  5. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Se n & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010, "Determinants of Vegetarianism and Partial Vegetarianism in the United Kingdom," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP360, Oct.
  6. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Se n & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010, "The Distributional Effects of Value Added Tax in Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP366, Dec.

2009

  1. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009, "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP287, Apr.
  2. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Se n, 2009, "Energy Use and Appliance Ownership in Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP277, Feb.

2008

  1. Richard S. J. Tol & Tim Callan & Thomas Conefrey & John FitzGerald & Se n Lyons & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri & Susan Scott, 2008, "A Carbon Tax for Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP246, Jun.
  2. Thomas Conefrey & John FitzGerald & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008, "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Ireland," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number WP251, Aug.

Undated

  1. Eimear Leahy & Sean Lyons & Edgar L.W. Morgenroth & Richard S.J. Tol, undated, "The Spatial Incidence of a Carbon Tax in Ireland," Working Papers, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, number FNU-174.

Journal articles

2025

  1. Bergin, Adele & Casey, Eddie & Conroy, Niall & McMahon, Michael, 2025, "From Bust To Bottlenecks: Lessons From The Irish Experience Of Public Investment And Fiscal Policy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 272, issue , pages -7, May.

2023

  1. Niall Conroy, 2023, "The Role of Elasticities in Forecasting Irish Income Tax Revenue," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 54, issue 2, pages 149-172.

2022

  1. Killian Carroll, 2022, "Free State to Tax State: A Century of Taxation in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 53, issue 1, pages 41-85.

2021

  1. Esther Gordo & Eddie Casey & Inna Oliinyk & Willem-Pieter de Groen & José Miguel Ramos Carrasco & James Jolovski, 2021, "The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions in Assessing the Sustainability of High Public Debt," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, volume 67, issue 3, pages 199-223, DOI: 10.3790/aeq.67.3.199.
  2. Casey, Eddie, 2021, "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 2, pages 716-732, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.09.002.
  3. Scott Cameron & Peter Fontaine & Helmut Berger & Eddie Casey & Niku Määttänen, 2021, "OECD Review of Finland’s Independent Fiscal Institution," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, volume 21, issue 3, DOI: 10.1787/3e927a24-en.

2020

  1. Casey, Eddie, 2020, "Do macroeconomic forecasters use macroeconomics to forecast?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 4, pages 1439-1453, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.02.006.
  2. Kate Ivory & Eddie Casey & Niall Conroy, 2020, "Ireland’s Fiscal Spending Multipliers," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 51, issue 1, pages 133-172.
  3. Niall Conroy, 2020, "Estimating Ireland’s Tax Elasticities: a Policy-Adjusted Approach," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 51, issue 2, pages 241-274.

2019

  1. Eddie Casey, 2019, "Foreword to Special Edition of The Economic and Social Review," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 50, issue 1, pages 1-4.
  2. Eddie Casey, 2019, "Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 50, issue 1, pages 5-34.
  3. Niall Conroy & Eddie Casey, 2019, "The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 50, issue 1, pages 77-102.
  4. Conefrey, Thomas & O'Reilly, Gerard & Walsh, Graeme & Zavalloni, Luca, 2019, "Modelling Overheating Risks in the Irish Economy," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 96-121, July.

2018

  1. Thomas Conefrey & Gerard O'Reilly & Graeme Walsh, 2018, "Modelling External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Ireland," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 244, issue 1, pages 56-63, May.

2016

  1. Eddie Casey & Diarmaid Smyth, 2016, "Revisions to Macroeconomic Data: Ireland and the OECD," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 47, issue 1, pages 33-68.
  2. Andrew Hannon & Eimear Leahy & Róisín O'Sullivan, 2016, "An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 47, issue 3, pages 391-423.

2015

  1. Thomas Conefrey & David Cronin, 2015, "Spillover in Euro Area Sovereign Bond Markets," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 46, issue 2, pages 197-231.

2014

  1. Casey, Eddie & O'Toole, Conor M., 2014, "Bank lending constraints, trade credit and alternative financing during the financial crisis: Evidence from European SMEs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, volume 27, issue C, pages 173-193, DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.05.001.
  2. Bermingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2014, "The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 3, pages 454-470, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.01.013.

2013

  1. Thomas Conefrey & John D. Fitz Gerald & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri & Richard S.J. Tol, 2013, "The impact of a carbon tax on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 56, issue 7, pages 934-952, September, DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2012.709467.
  2. Hyland, Marie & Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S.J., 2013, "The potential for segmentation of the retail market for electricity in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, volume 61, issue C, pages 349-359, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.052.

2012

  1. Leahy, Eimear & Devitt, Conor & Lyons, Seán & Tol, Richard S.J., 2012, "The cost of natural gas shortages in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, volume 46, issue C, pages 153-169, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.047.
  2. Eimear Leahy & Richard Tol, 2012, "Greener homes: an ex-post estimate of the cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction using administrative micro-data from the Republic of Ireland," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, volume 14, issue 3, pages 219-239, July, DOI: 10.1007/s10018-012-0034-6.

2011

  1. Conefrey, Thomas & Fitz Gerald, John D., 2011, "The macro-economic impact of changing the rate of corporation tax," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 991-999, May.
  2. Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011, "An estimate of the value of lost load for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, volume 39, issue 3, pages 1514-1520, March.
  3. Eimear Leahy & Seán Lyons & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011, "The Distributional Effects of Value Added Tax in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 42, issue 2, pages 213-235.
  4. Eimear Leahy & Seán Lyons & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011, "Determinants of Vegetarianism and Meat Consumption Frequency in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 42, issue 4, pages 407-436.

2010

  1. Thomas Conefrey & John Fitz Gerald, 2010, "Managing Housing Bubbles In Regional Economies Under Emu: Ireland And Spain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 211, issue 1, pages 91-108, January.
  2. Leahy, Eimear & Lyons, Sean, 2010, "Energy use and appliance ownership in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, volume 38, issue 8, pages 4265-4279, August.

Books

2014

  1. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2014, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20141, December.

2013

  1. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Timoney, Kevin & Casey, Eddie, 2013, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20124, December.
  2. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013, "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, ISBN: ARRAY(0x8e993d88), December.
  3. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2013, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2013," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20133, December.
  4. Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin, 2013, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2013," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20131, December.
  5. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2013, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2013," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20134, December.

2012

  1. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20122, December.
  2. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QECQEC2012AUT, December.
  3. McGuinness, Seamus & Bergin, Adele & Kelly, Elish & McCoy, Selina & Smyth, Emer & Timoney, Kevin, 2012, "A Study of Future Demand for Higher Education in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS30, ISBN: ARRAY(0x8e4f8b10).

2010

  1. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2010, "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number jacb201051, December.
  2. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2010, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20101, December.
  3. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2010, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20102, December.
  4. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Conefrey, Thomas & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2010, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20103, December.
  5. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Conefrey, Thomas & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2010, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20104, December.
  6. FitzGerald, John & Conefrey, Thomas & Bergin, Adele & CASE (Poland) & CPB (Netherlands) & DIW Berlin (Germany) & ETLA (Finland) & The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany) & NIESR (United Kin, 2010, "Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Winter 2010," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number sustat33.

2009

  1. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2009, "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20094, December.

2008

  1. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008, "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, December.

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