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The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?

Author

Listed:
  • Niall Conroy

    (Irish Fiscal Advisory Council)

  • Eddie Casey

    (Irish Fiscal Advisory Council)

Abstract

The current account balance has a rich tradition as an indicator of macroeconomic imbalances – one considered essential in terms of presaging the recent financial crisis. However, we show that the current account balance may be misleading in real time. Preliminary estimates are subject to large revisions and are often of a sufficient magnitude to cross key international thresholds for signalling macroeconomic imbalances. We find some evidence that revisions in certain countries may be systematically biased and, hence, predictable. Exploring the Irish current account data in detail, we find that trade statistics dominate revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Niall Conroy & Eddie Casey, 2019. "The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 77-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:50:y:2019:i:1:p:77-102
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2012. "(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 139-150, April.
    3. Alessi, Lucia & Antunes, Antonio & Babecky, Jan & Baltussen, Simon & Behn, Markus & Bonfim, Diana & Bush, Oliver & Detken, Carsten & Frost, Jon & Guimaraes, Rodrigo & Havranek, Tomas & Joy, Mark & Kau, 2015. "Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network," MPRA Paper 62194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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