IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp397.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Cost of Natural Gas Shortages in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Leahy, Eimear
  • Devitt, Conor
  • Lyons, Seán
  • Tol, Richard S. J.

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic implications of disruptions of one to ninety days to the supply of natural gas in Ireland. We assess the impact of a hypothetical gas supply disruption in both winter and summer in 2008 (with observed market characteristics) and in 2020 (with projected market characteristics). The cost of a natural gas outage includes the cost of natural gas being unavailable for heating and other purposes in the industrial and commercial sectors, lost consumer surplus in the residential sector, the cost of lost electricity in all sectors and lost VAT on the sale of gas and electricity. Ireland produces much of its electricity from natural gas and the loss of this electricity accounts for the majority of the cost of a natural gas outage. Losing gas-fired electricity would cost 0.1 to 1.0 billion euro per day, depending on the time of week, the time of year, and rationing of electricity. Industry should be rationed before households to minimize economic losses, but current emergency protocols favour industry. If gas-fired electricity is unavailable for three months, the economic loss could be up to 80 billion euro, about half of Gross Domestic Product. Losing gas for heating too would add up to approximately 8 billion euro in economic losses. We also discuss some options to increase Ireland's security of supply, and find that the cost is a small fraction of the avoided maximum damage.

Suggested Citation

  • Leahy, Eimear & Devitt, Conor & Lyons, Seán & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "The Cost of Natural Gas Shortages in Ireland," Papers WP397, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp397
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP397.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Estrada & Ole Fugleberg, 1989. "Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Demand in France and West Germany," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 77-90.
    2. Y. P. Ma & S. Gonçalves & S. Mignot & J.-P. Nadal & M. B. Gordon, 2009. "Cycles of cooperation and free-riding in social systems," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 597-610, October.
    3. Baker, Paul & Blundell, Richard, 1991. "The Microeconometric Approach to Modelling Energy Demand: Some Results for UK Households," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 54-76, Summer.
    4. Diffney, Seán & Lyons, Seán & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2013. "Evaluation of the effect of the Power of One campaign on natural gas consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 978-988.
    5. de Nooij, Michiel & Koopmans, Carl & Bijvoet, Carlijn, 2007. "The value of supply security: The costs of power interruptions: Economic input for damage reduction and investment in networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-295, March.
    6. Frank Asche & Odd Bjarte Nilsen & Ragnar Tveteras, 2008. "Natural Gas Demand in the European Household Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 27-46.
    7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Value of Lost Load," Papers WP214, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Damigos, D. & Tourkolias, C. & Diakoulaki, D., 2009. "Households' willingness to pay for safeguarding security of natural gas supply in electricity generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 2008-2017, May.
    9. Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "An estimate of the value of lost load for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1514-1520, March.
    10. Sharma, Atul & Chen, C.R. & Vu Lan, Nguyen, 2009. "Solar-energy drying systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1185-1210, August.
    11. Berkhout, Peter H. G. & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada & Muskens, Jos C., 2004. "The ex post impact of an energy tax on household energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 297-317, May.
    12. Zhang, Lixiao & Yang, Zhifeng & Chen, Bin & Chen, Guoqian, 2009. "Rural energy in China: Pattern and policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2813-2823.
    13. Scott, Susan & Lyons, Sean & Keane, Claire & McCarthy, Donal & Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "Fuel Poverty in Ireland: Extent, Affected Groups and Policy Issues," Papers WP262, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Gormanston, Tarbert and regulation
      by Richard Tol in The Irish Economy on 2011-12-08 14:37:22

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alcaraz, Carlo & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2017. "The effect of natural gas shortages on the Mexican economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 147-153.
    2. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
    3. Mingjing Guo & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng & Ziyu Jiang, 2018. "Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Hailemariam, Abebe & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "What drives volatility in natural gas prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 731-742.
    5. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, March.
    6. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Lambert, Derek & McCoy, Daire & Morgenroth,Edgar & Siedschlag, Iulia & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2015. "Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS48, March.
    7. Devine, Mel & Russo, Marianna, 2018. "LNG and gas storage optimisation and valuation: lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Papers WP606, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Raymond Li & Chi-Keung Woo & Asher Tishler & Jay Zarnikau, 2022. "Price Responsiveness of Residential Demand for Natural Gas in the United States," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "Price responsiveness of commercial demand for natural gas in the US," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    10. Jang, Jinyong & Lee, Jongsu & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2014. "The public׳s willingness to pay for securing a reliable natural gas supply in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 3-13.
    11. Luise Röpke, 2015. "Essays on the Integration of New Energy Sources into Existing Energy Systems," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 58.
    12. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2016. "The importance of gas infrastructure in power systems with high wind power penetrations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 294-304.
    13. Röpke, Luise, 2013. "The development of renewable energies and supply security: A trade-off analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1011-1021.
    14. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "How price responsive is industrial demand for natural gas in the United States?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diffney, Seán & Lyons, Seán & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2013. "Evaluation of the effect of the Power of One campaign on natural gas consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 978-988.
    2. Diffney, Seán & Lyons, Seán & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2013. "Evaluation of the effect of the Power of One campaign on natural gas consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 978-988.
    3. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2016. "Regional diversity in the costs of electricity outages: Results for German counties," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 195-205.
    4. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, March.
    5. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2015. "Welfare implications of power rationing: An application to Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-62.
    6. Copiello, Sergio & Grillenzoni, Carlo, 2017. "Is the cold the only reason why we heat our homes? Empirical evidence from spatial series data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 491-506.
    7. Kostakis, Ioannis & Lolos, Sarantis & Sardianou, Eleni, 2021. "Residential natural gas demand: Assessing the evidence from Greece using pseudo-panels, 2012–2019," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. John Curtis & Brian Stanley, 2016. "Analysing Residential Energy Demand: An Error Correction Demand System Approach for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 185-211.
    9. Burke, Paul J. & Yang, Hewen, 2016. "The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 466-474.
    10. Hagspiel, Simeon, 2017. "Reliable Electricity: The Effects of System Integration and Cooperative Measures to Make it Work," EWI Working Papers 2017-13, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    11. Alastaire Sèna ALINSATO, 2015. "Economic Valuation of Electrical Service Reliability for Households’ in Developing Country: A Censored Random Coefficient Model Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 352-359.
    12. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    13. Ovaere, Marten & Heylen, Evelyn & Proost, Stef & Deconinck, Geert & Van Hertem, Dirk, 2019. "How detailed value of lost load data impact power system reliability decisions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1064-1075.
    14. Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "An estimate of the value of lost load for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1514-1520, March.
    15. Sibylle Braungardt & Veit Bürger & Benjamin Köhler, 2021. "Carbon Pricing and Complementary Policies—Consistency of the Policy Mix for Decarbonizing Buildings in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, November.
    16. Christian Growitsch & Raimund Malischek & Sebastian Nick & Heike Wetzel, 2015. "The Costs of Power Interruptions in Germany: A Regional and Sectoral Analysis," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(3), pages 307-323, August.
    17. Raugei, Marco & Fullana-i-Palmer, Pere & Fthenakis, Vasilis, 2012. "The energy return on energy investment (EROI) of photovoltaics: Methodology and comparisons with fossil fuel life cycles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 576-582.
    18. Rehdanz, Katrin, 2007. "Determinants of residential space heating expenditures in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 167-182, March.
    19. Linares, Pedro & Rey, Luis, 2013. "The costs of electricity interruptions in Spain. Are we sending the right signals?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 751-760.
    20. Amoah, Anthony & Ferrini, Silvia & Schaafsma, Marije, 2019. "Electricity outages in Ghana: Are contingent valuation estimates valid?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Security of supply/natural gas; value of lost load; Ireland;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Burns (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.