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Trade-offs between system cost and supply security in municipal energy system design: An analysis considering spatio-temporal disparities in the Value of Lost Load

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  • Kachirayil, Febin
  • Huckebrink, David
  • Bertsch, Valentin
  • McKenna, Russell

Abstract

The Value of Lost Load is a key metric to assess the economic impact of power supply interruptions and establish supply security standards within the European Union. Current EU regulations recommend a single average value per country, even though welfare losses from supply interruptions vary significantly across time and space. This study investigates the implications of this simplification by deriving county-level Value of Lost Load estimates at an hourly resolution for the residential sector in Germany through a production function approach. Load curtailment options at different costs are integrated into an urban energy system optimization model to evaluate their effects on system cost and reliability indicators. The findings demonstrate that load curtailment of 0.12% can yield outsized benefits and reduce system costs by 3%, primarily by decreasing storage requirements, thereby alleviating the pressure that is put on the municipal energy systems. Regions with cheaper load curtailment can obtain larger cost reductions, but only at the expense of a disproportionate reduction in supply security. Introducing temporal detail on the other hand results in lower system costs while mitigating customer impacts through fewer curtailed hours and a notable shift towards nighttime periods. Empowering customers through smart infrastructure deployment and tariff reforms to take energy conservation measures is crucial to maximize these benefits.

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  • Kachirayil, Febin & Huckebrink, David & Bertsch, Valentin & McKenna, Russell, 2025. "Trade-offs between system cost and supply security in municipal energy system design: An analysis considering spatio-temporal disparities in the Value of Lost Load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 381(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:381:y:2025:i:c:s0306261924022797
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124896
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