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Unraveling the unsustainability spiral in sub-Saharan Africa: an agent based modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guido van Hofwegen

    (Wageningen International, Wageningen University)

  • Gertjan A. Becx

    (Wageningen International, Wageningen University)

  • Joep A. van den Broek

    (Wageningen International, Wageningen University)

  • Niek B.J. Koning

    (Wageningen International, Wageningen University)

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is trapped in a complex unsustainability spiral with demographic, biophysical, technical and socio-political dimensions. Unravelling the spiral is vital to perceive which policy actions are needed to reverse it and initiate sustainable pro-poor growth. The article presents an evolutionary, multi-agent modelling framework that marries a socio-ecological approach to a world system perspective and takes agriculture as the engine for sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa. A number of possibilities for empirical validation are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido van Hofwegen & Gertjan A. Becx & Joep A. van den Broek & Niek B.J. Koning, 2007. "Unraveling the unsustainability spiral in sub-Saharan Africa: an agent based modelling approach," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 5(2), pages 112-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:zna:indecs:v:5:y:2007:i:2:p:112-137
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

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