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Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan

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  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor
  • Berg, Ernst
  • Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer
  • Martius, Christopher
  • Lamers, John P.A.

Abstract

A decline in water availability due to rising temperatures and growing water demand presents significant and unique challenges to agricultural producers in Uzbekistan. This study investigates the impact of climate change on farm revenues and water use efficiencies in Western Uzbekistan. A spatially explicit stochastic optimization model is used to analyze crop and water allocation decisions under conditions of uncertainty for irrigation water availability in the area for the first time. Results show farmers’ income could fall by as much as 25% with a 3.2°C temperature increase and a 15% decline in irrigation. Farmers located in the tail end of the irrigation system could lose an even greater share of their revenues. A more conservative increase in temperature could increase farmer income by as much as 46% with a 2.2° temperature increase and only 8% decline in irrigation water since some crops benefit from extended vegetation periods. Under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, environmental challenges due to shallow groundwater tables may improve associated with enhanced water use efficiency.

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  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Berg, Ernst & Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer & Martius, Christopher & Lamers, John P.A., 2016. "Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13, pages 19-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:176543
    DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2016.05.004
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    5. Duyen Nhat Lam Tran & Tien Dinh Nguyen & Thuy Thu Pham & Roberto F. Rañola & Thinh An Nguyen, 2021. "Improving Irrigation Water Use Efficiency of Robusta Coffee ( Coffea canephora ) Production in Lam Dong Province, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Tang, L. & Zhou, J. & Liu, Q., 2018. "Beyond quantity: the crowding-in effects of perception of climate risk on chemical use by Chinese rice farmers," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277220, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Babakholov, Sherzod & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Hasanov, Shavkat & Glauben, Thomas, 2022. "An empirical assessment of the interactive impacts of irrigation and climate on farm productivity in Samarkand region, Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7.
    8. Liangzhen Zang & Yahua Wang & Yiqing Su, 2021. "Does Farmland Scale Management Promote Rural Collective Action? An Empirical Study of Canal Irrigation Systems in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, November.

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