IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan


  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor
  • Berg, Ernst
  • Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer
  • Martius, Christopher
  • Lamers, John P.A.


A decline in water availability due to rising temperatures and growing water demand presents significant and unique challenges to agricultural producers in Uzbekistan. This study investigates the impact of climate change on farm revenues and water use efficiencies in Western Uzbekistan. A spatially explicit stochastic optimization model is used to analyze crop and water allocation decisions under conditions of uncertainty for irrigation water availability in the area for the first time. Results show farmers’ income could fall by as much as 25% with a 3.2°C temperature increase and a 15% decline in irrigation. Farmers located in the tail end of the irrigation system could lose an even greater share of their revenues. A more conservative increase in temperature could increase farmer income by as much as 46% with a 2.2° temperature increase and only 8% decline in irrigation water since some crops benefit from extended vegetation periods. Under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, environmental challenges due to shallow groundwater tables may improve associated with enhanced water use efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Berg, Ernst & Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer & Martius, Christopher & Lamers, John P.A., 2016. "Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 19-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:176543

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Djanibekov, Nodir & Sommer, Rolf & Djanibekov, Utkur, 2013. "Evaluation of effects of cotton policy changes on land and water use in Uzbekistan: Application of a bio-economic farm model at the level of a water users association," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2005. "Towards some principles of good practice for decision analysis in agriculture," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137925, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Mirzabaev, Alisher, 2013. "Impacts of Weather Variability and Climate Change on Agricultural Revenues in Central Asia," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(3), pages 1-16, August.
    4. A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1959. "Chance-Constrained Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 73-79, October.
    5. Michael Glantz, 2005. "Water, Climate, and Development Issues in the Amu Darya Basin," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 23-50, January.
    6. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand, 2010. "Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 345-350, July.
    7. Nodir Djanibekov & Kristof van Assche & Ihtiyor Bobojonov & John Lamers, 2012. "Farm Restructuring and Land Consolidation in Uzbekistan: New Farms with Old Barriers," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(6), pages 1101-1126.
    8. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 245-255.
    9. Meyer, Jack, 1987. "Two-moment Decision Models and Expected Utility Maximization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 421-430, June.
    10. William R. Sutton & Jitendra P. Srivastava & James E. Neumann, 2013. "Looking Beyond the Horizon : How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13119, June.
    11. Meiyappan, Prasanth & Dalton, Michael & O’Neill, Brian C. & Jain, Atul K., 2014. "Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 152-174.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Aijun Guo & Daiwei Jiang & Fanglei Zhong & Xiaojiang Ding & Xiaoyu Song & Qingping Cheng & Yongnian Zhang & Chunlin Huang, 2019. "Prediction of Technological Change under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Regional Differences: A Case Study of Irrigation Water Use Efficiency Changes in Chinese Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(24), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Tang, L. & Zhou, J. & Liu, Q., 2018. "Beyond quantity: the crowding-in effects of perception of climate risk on chemical use by Chinese rice farmers," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277220, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 245-255.
    2. Mori-Clement, Yadira & Bhaduri, Anik & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2014. "Food price fluctuations in Uzbekistan: Evidences from local markets in 2002-2010," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183091, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Donna Mitchell & Ryan B. Williams & Darren Hudson & Phillip Johnson, 2017. "A Monte Carlo analysis on the impact of climate change on future crop choice and water use in Uzbekistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 697-709, August.
    4. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2015. "The effects of variability under farm land consolidation process: A perspective of cotton-growing farmers in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211829, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Bhaduri, Anik & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2015. "Adoption of Water-Efficient Technology: Role of Water Price Flexibility, Tenure Uncerntainty and Production Targets in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211336, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Komarek, Adam M. & De Pinto, Alessandro & Smith, Vincent H., 2020. "A review of types of risks in agriculture: What we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2018. "Agricultural risks and farm land consolidation process in transition countries: The case of cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 223-235.
    8. Khasanov, Shavkat & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2015. "Improving Cotton Production and Crop Diversification in Uzbekistan: Tradable Cotton Production Targets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211841, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Djanibekov, Nodir & Djanibekov, Utkur & Sommer, Rolf & Petrick, Martin, 2015. "Cooperative agricultural production to exploit individual heterogeneity under a delivery target: The case of cotton in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Thomas Eichner & Andreas Wagener, 2002. "Increases in Risk and the Welfare State," CESifo Working Paper Series 685, CESifo.
    11. Li, Chenguang & Sexton, Richard J., 2009. "Impacts of Retailers’ Pricing Strategies for Produce Commodities on Farmer Welfare," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51720, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Unterschultz, James R., 2000. "New Instruments For Co-Ordination And Risk Sharing Within The Canadian Beef Industry," Project Report Series 24046, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    13. Barrett, Christopher B., 1999. "The effects of real exchange rate depreciation on stochastic producer prices in low-income agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 215-230, May.
    14. Scott, James & Ho, William & Dey, Prasanta K. & Talluri, Srinivas, 2015. "A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 226-237.
    15. Freeman, Mark C. & Wagner, Gernot & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2015. "Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty: When Is Good News Bad?," Working Paper Series rwp15-002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    16. Minjiao Zhang & Simge Küçükyavuz & Saumya Goel, 2014. "A Branch-and-Cut Method for Dynamic Decision Making Under Joint Chance Constraints," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1317-1333, May.
    17. Michael Finus & Pedro Pintassilgo & Alistair Ulph, 2014. "International Environmental Agreements with Uncertainty, Learning and Risk Aversion," Department of Economics Working Papers 19/14, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    18. Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost Risk Analysis: Dynamically Consistent Decision-Making under Climate Targets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 247-261, January.
    19. Barrett, Christopher B., 1998. "Immiserized growth in liberalized agriculture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 743-753, May.
    20. Broll, Udo & Roldán-Ponce, Antonio & Wahl, Jack E., 2010. "Spatial allocation of capital: The role of risk preferences," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 03/10, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:176543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.