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A test of prohibition's effect on alcohol production and consumption using crop yields

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  • Griffin Edwards
  • Travis Howe

Abstract

The effect of alcohol prohibition in the United States has been the subject of continuing debate. Due to a lack of data, one question that remains unanswered is the effect prohibition had on the actual production of alcohol. This article attempts to answer this question by estimating prohibition's impact on the yields of grains that constitute the principal inputs in alcohol production. Using a variety of data sources and exploiting the variation in timing of state prohibition law adoption, we estimate the effect of prohibition on several measures of crop production. Our preferred identification strategy compares contiguous counties in states with differing prohibition laws. Our findings suggest that state prohibition laws decreased the production of barley and may have increased the production of corn. Using these estimates, we calculate that prohibition decreased alcohol production, and by extension consumption, by at least 18 gallons per adult per year.

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  • Griffin Edwards & Travis Howe, 2015. "A test of prohibition's effect on alcohol production and consumption using crop yields," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1145-1168, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:81:y:2015:i:4:p:1145-1168
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12025
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    5. Dills, Angela K. & Jacobson, Mireille & Miron, Jeffrey A., 2005. "The effect of alcohol prohibition on alcohol consumption: evidence from drunkenness arrests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 279-284, February.
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    7. Angela K. Dills, 2004. "Alcohol Prohibition and Cirrhosis," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 6(2), pages 285-318.
    8. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
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    1. Eline Poelmans & John A. Dove & Jason E. Taylor & Ranjit S. Dighe, 2022. "Factors influencing the timing and type of state-level alcohol prohibitions prior to 1920," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 201-226, September.

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