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Evaluating the impact of the government loan program on farms in Vietnam: An application of fuzzy regression discontinuity design

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  • Dao Van Le
  • Tuyen Quang Tran

Abstract

This study examines the role of a government loan program on the performance of agricultural, forestry, and fishery farms in Vietnam, utilizing a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. The results of the study indicate that: (i) the government loan program decreases the total revenue of participating farms and (ii) the heterogeneous impact of the loan program depends on the type of farm (e.g., nonlivestock farms tend to receive more positive effects from the loan program). Notably, the study reveals some mechanisms explaining why having government loans can reduce farm efficiency; specifically, farms that use more pesticides and do not engage in e‐commerce activities tend to suffer from the government loan program. The results of the study have important implications for future research, particularly in improving the effectiveness of government loan programs and promoting formal e‐commerce activities in the future. 本研究利用模糊断点回归设计(FRDD)，分析了政府贷款计划对越南农业、林业和渔业的农场绩效的作用。研究结果表明:(i)政府贷款计划减少了参与该计划的农场的总收入；(ii)贷款计划的异质性影响取决于农场的类型（例如，非畜牧农场往往会从贷款计划中获得更积极的影响）。值得注意的是，本研究揭示了一些机制，后者解释了为何政府贷款的获得会降低农场效率；具体而言，使用更多农药且不从事电商活动的农场往往会受到政府贷款计划的消极影响。研究结果对未来研究具有重要启示，特别是在未来提高政府贷款计划的有效性和促进正规电商活动方面。 Este estudio examina el papel de un programa de préstamos del gobierno en el desempeño de las explotaciones agrícolas, forestales y pesqueras en Vietnam, utilizando un diseño de regresión discontinua difusa (FRDD). Los resultados del estudio indican que: (i) el programa de préstamos del gobierno disminuye los ingresos totales de las fincas participantes; y (ii) el impacto heterogéneo del programa de préstamos depende del tipo de explotación (por ejemplo, las explotaciones no ganaderas tienden a recibir efectos más positivos del programa de préstamos). En particular, el estudio revela algunos mecanismos que explican por qué tener préstamos gubernamentales puede reducir la eficiencia agrícola; Específicamente, las granjas que usan más pesticidas y no participan en actividades de comercio electrónico tienden a verse afectadas por el programa de préstamos del gobierno. Los resultados del estudio tienen implicaciones importantes para futuras investigaciones, particularmente para mejorar la efectividad de los programas de préstamos gubernamentales y promover actividades formales de comercio electrónico en el futuro.

Suggested Citation

  • Dao Van Le & Tuyen Quang Tran, 2024. "Evaluating the impact of the government loan program on farms in Vietnam: An application of fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 146-171, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:povpop:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:146-171
    DOI: 10.1002/pop4.400
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