Puzzling over declining academic achievement

Many are concerned about the large decline in K–12 student achievement since 2019. And rightly so, given what it signals about student learning and later life outcomes. Less noted is the pre‐pandemic sustained decline in student achievement growth that followed more than 30 years of increases. We examine the nature of achievement decline as measured by national and state NAEP scores. Our analysis suggests that pre‐pandemic achievement declines are large, began earlier than commonly thought, and vary substantially among states. Importantly, a large portion of the pandemic learning losses have their roots well before 2020 and are likely not attributable to the pandemic per se. An analysis of evidence for commonly suggested causes of learning loss suggests that achievement declines likely result from several influences that vary across states and over time. Regaining momentum on academic outcomes will likely require many changes. The devolution of leadership for education policy to states offers an important opportunity for state leaders to embrace this challenge.