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Minimum Wages, Efficiency, and Welfare

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  • David Berger
  • Kyle Herkenhoff
  • Simon Mongey

Abstract

Many argue that minimum wages can prevent efficiency losses from monopsony power. We assess this argument in a general equilibrium model of oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms. We decompose welfare gains into an efficiency component that captures reductions in monopsony power and a redistributive component that captures the way minimum wages shift resources across people. The minimum wage that maximizes the efficiency component of welfare lies below $8.00 and yields gains worth less than 0.2% of lifetime consumption. When we add back in Utilitarian redistributive motives, the optimal minimum wage is $11 and redistribution accounts for 102.5% of the resulting welfare gains, implying offsetting efficiency losses of −2.5%. The reason a minimum wage struggles to deliver efficiency gains is that with realistic firm productivity dispersion, a minimum wage that eliminates monopsony power at one firm causes severe rationing at another. These results hold under an EITC and progressive labor income taxes calibrated to the U.S. economy.

Suggested Citation

  • David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Simon Mongey, 2025. "Minimum Wages, Efficiency, and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 265-301, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:93:y:2025:i:1:p:265-301
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21466
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    2. Florio, Erminia & Kharazi, Aicha, 2022. "Curtailment of Economic Activity and Labor Inequalities," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1166, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
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    5. Alexandre Janiak & Jonathan Rojas Hepburn, 2023. "The Grasshopper, the Ant, and the Minimum Wage," Documentos de Trabajo 570, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    6. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2425, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    7. Loukas Karabarbounis & Jeremy Lise & Anusha Nath, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities," Working Papers 793, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Alonso Alfaro-Urena & Benjamin Faber & Cecile Gaubert & Isabela Manelici & Jose P. Vasquez, 2022. "Responsible Sourcing? Theory and Evidence from Costa Rica," CESifo Working Paper Series 10108, CESifo.
    9. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    10. Arabzadeh, Hamzeh & Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Taskin, Ahmet Ali, 2024. "Minimum wages, wage dispersion and financial constraints in firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2026. "The heterogeneous effects of large and small minimum wage changes on hours worked: Evidence using a partially pre-committed analysis plan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    12. Jae Won Lee & Seunghyeon Lee, 2025. "Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multisector Economy: The Role of Risk-Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    13. Alejandro Estefan & Roberto Gerhard & Joseph P. Kaboski & Illenin O. Kondo & Wei Qian, 2024. "Outsourcing Policy and Worker Outcomes: Causal Evidence from a Mexican Ban," NBER Working Papers 32024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Luke Haywood, 2023. "Gendered Effects of the Minimum Wage," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2023/450, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Rui Pan & Dao‐Zhi Zeng, 2024. "Goods market desirability of minimum wages," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(364), pages 1255-1290, October.
    16. Mertens, Matthias & Mottironi, Bernardo, 2023. "Do larger firms exert more market power? Markups and markdowns along the size distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Yu, Lianchao & Zhu, Lele & Dong, Jinting, 2026. "The dark side of environmental judicial specialization: Corporate labor income share in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Kahn, Matthew E. & Tracy, Joseph, 2024. "Monopsony in spatial equilibrium," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    19. Alonso Alfaro-Ureña & Benjamin Faber & Cecile Gaubert & Isabela Manelici & José Pablo Vásquez-Carvajal, 2023. "Responsible Sourcing? Theory and evidence from Costa Rica," Documentos de Trabajo 2305, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
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    21. Amodio, Francesco & Brancati, Emanuele & de Roux, Nicolás & Di Maio, Michele, 2025. "Labor Market Institutions and Wage-Setting Power: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," CEPR Discussion Papers 20539, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    22. Di Nola, Alessandro & Haywood, Luke & Wang, Haomin, 2023. "Gendered effects of the minimum wage," Working Papers 14, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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