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The Impact of Structural Change on Physical Flows in the Economy: Forecasting and Backcasting Using Structural Decomposition Analysis

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  • Rutger Hoekstra
  • Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh

Abstract

Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is employed to examine physical flows other than energy and energy-related emissions. A unique set of hybrid-unit I/O tables, including both physical and monetary data, was constructed for this purpose. The decomposition results are used to perform forecasting and backcasting (target) analyses. The approach is applied to the use of iron and steel, and plastics in the Nether-lands over the period 1990 to 1997. The analysis shows that export-driven "rematerialization" has occurred during this period, and that the physical volume of the materials considered will continue to grow until 2030 under a wide range of scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Rutger Hoekstra & Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, 2006. "The Impact of Structural Change on Physical Flows in the Economy: Forecasting and Backcasting Using Structural Decomposition Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(4), pages 582-601.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:82:y:2006:i:4:p:582-601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los, 1998. "Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 307-324.
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    5. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Environmental and Resource Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 801.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

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