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Inflation control and adequacy of targeting to economic growth policy

Author

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  • Oleg S. Sukharev

    (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper studies the relationship between inflation and economic growth. The subject of the research is the correlation between price dynamics and economic growth in the context of two main approaches – Fischerian and Schumpeterian – that describe such a relationship. The methodological and theoretical basis embraces the advances in the field of inflation of the neoclassical and Keynesian economic schools. The research method is the construction of an econometric model that allows identifying the effect of such a policy as inflation targeting. The study proves that in the Russian economy, there is no obvious relationship established between inflation and the product created, that is Fischer’s growth model, where inflation has to be suppressed to stimulate growth, is not justified. The developed analytical model of the relationship between inflation and the growth rate achieved when introducing a tough regulation – the targeting rule followed by monetary authorities – confirms that the targeting policy is indifferent to the ratio of aggregate supply and demand. Pursuing this policy can push up costs and heighten inflationary pressure. This method to control inflation is rather ineffective as the actions aimed at lowering inflation will produce the opposite effect fueling it. We conclude that, if targeting is used as a sort of anti-inflationary policy, the target should be altered to the situation and at least be put within certain limits to enable the economy to adapt to the dynamic change in the rest of its parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg S. Sukharev, 2020. "Inflation control and adequacy of targeting to economic growth policy," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 33-44, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:url:upravl:v:11:y:2020:i:1:p:33-44
    DOI: 10.29141/2218-5003-2019-11-1-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Parker, Miles, 2018. "How global is “global inflation”?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-197.
    5. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Raurich, Xavier, 2015. "Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 359-374.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 2007. "The last 50 years in growth theory and the next 10," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 3-14, Spring.
    7. Arbex, Marcelo & Caetano, Sidney & Correa, Wilson, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation target uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 111-115.
    8. Zeira, Joseph & Zoabi, Hosny, 2015. "Economic growth and sector dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2019. "The impact of financial development on the effectiveness of inflation targeting in developing economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 25-35.
    10. Adler, Gustavo & Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2019. "Foreign exchange intervention and inflation targeting: The role of credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victoria P. Litvinets, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth in Developed and Developing Countries: Evaluation of the Policy Effectiveness Using CS-ARDL Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(4), pages 814-833.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation menegment; economic growth; Fisher’s growth model; Schumpeter’s growth model; inflation targeting; aggregate demand; aggregate supply; recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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