Structural growth policy in Russia: Resources, technology-intensity, risk, and industrialisation

One way to overcome resource constraints in the Russian economy, which could boost its efficiency, is implementing measures of structural policy that affect resource movement. The paper studies opportunities of growth through the development of the manufacturing sector and movement of the resources between sectors. Methodologically the research relies on the Keynesian approach to economic growth, which is of structural nature and appears to be the most relevant for scrutinizing structural specifics of growth and resources distribution within the economy. In terms of methods, the paper applies structural analysis and uses elements of econometric modelling. General and special industrialisation criteria allow establishing whether the economy is industrial by structure or by the level of technological development. On the basis of the obtained models the authors judge how the sectors’ risk profitability ratio impacts on the movement of capital and labour between them. The findings reveal that if the structural policy affects the ratio between risk and profitability, as well as the level of sector’s technology-intensity due to spurring investment into new technologies (under decrease in risk), the manufacturing sector will receive an additional resource, improve its dynamics, and increase its contribution to GDP growth. The scenario forecast of the industrialisation criteria depending on the risk in the manufacturing sector points to the conclusion that the risk is to be diminished to raise the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP growth and simultaneously intensify the technological industrialisation.