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Nafta´s trade efects: new evidence with a gravity model

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  • Claudio E.Montenegro
  • Isidro Soloaga

    ()

Abstract

This paper estimates econometrically the impact of NAFTA on US-Mexico and US-third countries (groups of countries) trade flows. Using a traditional gravity-equation framework, we try to see to what extent the bilateral trade flows between the US and different countries differ from a gravity-type specification. By incorporating a series of dummy variables into the specification, we interpret the changes in these dummy variables over time as evidence on whether NAFTA affected the trade patterns. The main conclusion is that NAFTA did not have a significant effect on US trade patterns, neither with Mexico nor with other countries in the world (with exception of CACM).

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio E.Montenegro & Isidro Soloaga, 2006. "Nafta´s trade efects: new evidence with a gravity model," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1 Year 20), pages 45-63, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:45-63
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003. "An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
    3. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    4. Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "NAFTA's Effects: A Preliminary Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 761-775, June.
    5. de Melo, Jaime & Montenegro, Claudio & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Regional integration, old and new," Policy Research Working Paper Series 985, The World Bank.
    6. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    7. Faezeh Foroutan, 1998. "Does Membership in a Regional Preferential Trade Arrangement Make a Country More or Less Protectionist?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 305-335, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio E. Montenegro & Mariana Pereira & Isidro Soloaga, 2011. "El efecto de China en el comercio internacional de América Latina," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2 Year 20), pages 341-368, December.
    2. Muhammad Ullah & Kazuo Inaba, 2012. "Impact of RTA and PTA on Bangladesh’s Export: Application of a Gravity Model," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 445-460, December.
    3. Duran-Fernandez, Roberto & Santos, Georgina, 2014. "Gravity, distance, and traffic flows in Mexico," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-35.
    4. Duran-Fernandez, Roberto & Santos, Georgina, 2014. "A regional model of road accessibility in Mexico: Accessibility surfaces and robustness analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 55-69.
    5. Claudio E. Montenegro & Mariana Pereira & Isidro Soloaga, 2010. "China’s effect on Latin America’s international trade," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2010-08, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAFTA; Gravity Model; Trade Diversion; Fixed Effects.;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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