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An Econometric Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Mercosur: the Case of Paraguay

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  • Gauto, Victor F.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of Mercosur on Paraguayan import flows using detailed trade values to identify patterns of trade creation and trade diversion at aggregate and disaggregate commodity levels. It is well know that the share of foreign trade with respect to GDP is larger for small countries. Consequently, the effects of a trade agreement between large and small countries are likely to be larger in small economies. I use a variant of the gravity model employing a reparameterization of the difference-in-difference estimator to analyze import flows over time from member and non-member countries. Additionally, I explicitly include zero trade flows and implement a Heckman sample selection correction along with country fixed effects. I find the creation of Mercosur has increased average regional imports by 266% since 1995, which is evidence of trade creation. The greatest import expansions have been in Beverages and Tobacco and Animal and vegetable oils & fats. Finally, I do not find statistically significant evidence of trade diversion in any of the ten commodity categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauto, Victor F., 2012. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Mercosur: the Case of Paraguay," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126864, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126864
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/126864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003. "An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
    2. Elhanan Helpman, 1995. "Politics and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 5309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    4. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, May.
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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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