IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae12/126864.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Econometric Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Mercosur: the Case of Paraguay

Author

Listed:
  • Gauto, Victor F.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of Mercosur on Paraguayan import flows using detailed trade values to identify patterns of trade creation and trade diversion at aggregate and disaggregate commodity levels. It is well know that the share of foreign trade with respect to GDP is larger for small countries. Consequently, the effects of a trade agreement between large and small countries are likely to be larger in small economies. I use a variant of the gravity model employing a reparameterization of the difference-in-difference estimator to analyze import flows over time from member and non-member countries. Additionally, I explicitly include zero trade flows and implement a Heckman sample selection correction along with country fixed effects. I find the creation of Mercosur has increased average regional imports by 266% since 1995, which is evidence of trade creation. The greatest import expansions have been in Beverages and Tobacco and Animal and vegetable oils & fats. Finally, I do not find statistically significant evidence of trade diversion in any of the ten commodity categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauto, Victor F., 2012. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Mercosur: the Case of Paraguay," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126864, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126864
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.126864
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/126864/files/Gautopaper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.126864?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helpman, E., 1995. "Politics and Trade Policy," Papers 30-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
    2. Arvind Panagariya & Jagdish Bhagwati, 1999. "Preferential Trading Areas and Multilateralism: Strangers, Friends or Foes?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Regionalism In Trade Policy Essays on Preferential Trading, chapter 2, pages 47-111, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003. "An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
    6. Kimberly A. Clausing, 2001. "Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 677-696, August.
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1997. "Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_97-1, March.
    8. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, May.
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, October.
    10. Yeats, Alexander J, 1998. "Does Mercosur's Trade Performance Raise Concerns about the Effects of Regional Trade Arrangements?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mutanga, Albert & Tagwi, Aluwani Maiwashe & Chipfupa, Unity, 2023. "The EU-SACU Economic Partnership Agreement: Resultant Trends and Patterns an SADC Intra-Regional Agricultural Trade Flows," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 68(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Céline CARRERE, 2003. "Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trading Agreements on trade flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model," Working Papers 200310, CERDI.
    2. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Felicitas, Nowak-Lehmann D. & Horsewood, Nicholas, 2009. "Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-65, March.
    3. Michele Fratianni, 2004. "Borders and the Constraints on Globalization," Working Papers 2004-05, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    4. Wall, Howard-J, 2002. "Has Japan Been Left Out in the Cold by Regional Integration?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 117-134, April.
    5. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jan), pages 49-63.
    6. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 291-316, November.
    7. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10187 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009. "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
    10. Farha Fatema & Mohammad Monirul Islam, 2020. "Driving Forces of Marine Fisheries and Seafood Export of Bangladesh: Augmented Gravity Model Approach," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 106-122, June.
    11. Rahul Sen & Sadhana Srivastava & Don Webber, 2015. "Preferential trading agreements and the gravity model in presence of zero and missing trade flows: Early results for China and India," Working Papers 2015-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    12. Mustafizur Rahman & Wasel Bin Shadat & Narayan Chandra Das, 2006. "Trade Potential in SAFTA: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model," CPD Working Paper 61, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    13. Clarete, Ramon & Edmonds, Christopher & Wallack, Jessica Seddon, 2003. "Asian regionalism and its effects on trade in the 1980s and 1990s," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 91-129, February.
    14. de Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market access in global and regional trade," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1037-1052.
    15. Claudio E.Montenegro & Isidro Soloaga, 2006. "Nafta´s trade efects: new evidence with a gravity model," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1 Year 20), pages 45-63, June.
    16. Rahul Sen & Sadhana Srivastava & Don J Webber, 2015. "Effects of preferential trade agreements in the presence of zero trade flows: the cases of China and India," Working Papers 20151507, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    17. Jong‐Wha Lee & Innwon Park & Kwanho Shin, 2008. "Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1525-1557, December.
    18. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    19. Michele Fratianni & Chang Hoon Oh, 2009. "Expanding RTAs, trade flows, and the multinational enterprise," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 40(7), pages 1206-1227, September.
    20. Jugurnath, Bhavish & Stewart, Mark & Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 974-987, December.
    21. Islam, Sulequl, 2003. "Expansions of the European Union and the NAFTA: Implications for New and Non-Member countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.