An Econometric Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Mercosur: the Case of Paraguay
This paper analyzes the effects of Mercosur on Paraguayan import flows using detailed trade values to identify patterns of trade creation and trade diversion at aggregate and disaggregate commodity levels. It is well know that the share of foreign trade with respect to GDP is larger for small countries. Consequently, the effects of a trade agreement between large and small countries are likely to be larger in small economies. I use a variant of the gravity model employing a reparameterization of the difference-in-difference estimator to analyze import flows over time from member and non-member countries. Additionally, I explicitly include zero trade flows and implement a Heckman sample selection correction along with country fixed effects. I find the creation of Mercosur has increased average regional imports by 266% since 1995, which is evidence of trade creation. The greatest import expansions have been in Beverages and Tobacco and Animal and vegetable oils & fats. Finally, I do not find statistically significant evidence of trade diversion in any of the ten commodity categories.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.iaae-agecon.org/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Helpman, E., 1995.
"Politics and Trade Policy,"
30-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2002.
"An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA,"
Discussion Paper Series
a431, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003. "An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Working Papers 491, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M. Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Discussion papers 02011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999.
"Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.