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Economic consequences of the US withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol

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  • Barbara Buchner
  • Carlo Carraro
  • Igor Cersosimo

Abstract

The US decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and the recent outcomes of the Bonn and Marrakech Conferences of the Parties have important implications for both the effectiveness and the efficiency of future climate policies. Among these implications, those related with technical change and with the functioning of the international market for carbon emissions are particularly relevant, because these variables have the largest impact on the overall abatement cost to be borne by Annex B countries in the short and in the long run. This paper analyses the consequences of the US decision to withdraw from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol both on technological innovation and on the price of emission permits (and, as a consequence, on abatement costs). In particular, the analysis highlights mechanisms and feedbacks related to technological innovation, technological spillovers and R&D which could be relevant and which modify some policy relevant conclusions. First, we identify two feedback effects which explain why our results lead to a less significant fall in the price of permits than in most empirical analyses recently circulated. We show that the US defection from the Kyoto Protocol, by inducing a decline in the demand and price of emission permits, lowers the incentives to undertake energy-saving R&D. As a consequence, emissions increase and feed back on the demand and supply of permits, thus implying a lower decline in the price of permits than previously estimated. At the same time, as a result of the reduced R&D investments and the augmented emissions, climate change damages intensify and require an increase in investments that are again coupled with a growth of emissions. By thus again increasing the demand for permits and reducing their supply, this effect enhances the previous mechanism. Notwithstanding the lower decline in the price of permits, the paper still identifies a smaller price than would occur with a US participation. Therefore, we emphasise in a second step the crucial role of Russia in climate negotiations due to a large increase in Russia's bargaining power.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Buchner & Carlo Carraro & Igor Cersosimo, 2002. "Economic consequences of the US withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 273-292, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:2:y:2002:i:4:p:273-292
    DOI: 10.3763/cpol.2002.0234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Lanza, 1999. "Desperately Seeking (Environmental) Kuznets," Working Papers 1999.2, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Böhringer, Christoph, 2001. "Climate politics from Kyoto to Bonn: from little to nothing?!?," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-49, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Böhringer, Christoph, 2003. "The Kyoto Protocol: A Review and Perspectives," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-61, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Raouf Boucekkine & Carmen Camacho & Weihua Ruan & Benteng Zou, 2022. "Why and when coalitions split? An alternative analytical approach with an application to environmental agreements," Working Papers halshs-03676670, HAL.
    3. Kerkelä, Leena, 2009. "Essays on globalization - Policies in trade, development, resources and climate change," Research Reports 50, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Barbara Buchner & Carlo Carraro, 2003. "Emissions Trading Regimes and Incentives to Participate in International Climate Agreements," Working Papers 2003.104, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Warwick McKibbin & Peter Wilcoxen, 2008. "Building On Kyoto: Towards A Realistic Global Climate Agreement," CAMA Working Papers 2008-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2017. "International Environmental Agreement and the Timing of Domestic Lobbying," Discussion Paper Series 165, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Apr 2019.
    7. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "Global Energy and Environmental Impacts of an Expanding China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 38-56, August.
    8. Ravallion, Martin & Lokshin, Michael, 2004. "Gainers and losers from trade reform in Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3368, The World Bank.
    9. Kounetas, Konstantinos E. & Polemis, Michael L. & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2021. "Measurement of eco-efficiency and convergence: Evidence from a non-parametric frontier analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(1), pages 365-378.
    10. Marzio Galeotti & Carlo Carraro, 2004. "Does Endogenous Technical Change Make a Difference in Climate Policy Analysis? A Robustness Exercise with the FEEM-RICE Model," Working Papers 2004.152, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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