IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ecinnt/v16y2007i6p403-417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Importation And Innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Frank R. Lichtenberg

Abstract

Importation of drugs into the US may soon become legal. Since prices of drugs are lower in most other countries than they are in the US, importation would result in a decline in US drug prices. The purpose of this paper is to assess the consequences of importation for new drug development. First, the author presents a simple theoretical model of drug development which suggests that the elasticity of innovation with respect to the expected price of drugs should be at least as great as the elasticity of innovation with respect to expected market size (disease incidence). Then, the cross-sectional relationship between pharmaceutical innovation and market size among a set of diseases (different types of cancer) exhibiting substantial exogenous variation in expected market size is examined. Two different measures of pharmaceutical innovation are analysed: the number of distinct chemotherapy regimens for treating a cancer site and the number of articles published in scientific journals pertaining to drug therapy for that cancer site. Both analyses indicate that the amount of pharmaceutical innovation increases with disease incidence. The elasticity of the number of chemotherapy regimens with respect to the number of cases is 0.53. The elasticity of MEDLINE drug cites with respect to cancer incidence throughout the world is 0.60. In the long run, a 10% decline in drug prices would therefore be likely to cause at least a 5-6% decline in pharmaceutical innovation. Evidence suggests that pharmaceutical industry employment would also decline (by at least 3.5-4%) in response to an exogenous 10% decline in drug prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2007. "Importation And Innovation," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 403-417.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:16:y:2007:i:6:p:403-417
    DOI: 10.1080/10438590601002307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10438590601002307
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10438590601002307?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James W. Hughes & Michael J. Moore & Edward A. Snyder, 2002. ""Napsterizing" Pharmaceuticals: Access, Innovation, and Consumer Welfare," NBER Working Papers 9229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2005. "Pharmaceutical Knowledge-Capital Accumulation and Longevity," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 237-274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Giaccotto, Carmelo & Santerre, Rexford E & Vernon, John A, 2005. "Drug Prices and Research and Development Investment Behavior in the Pharmaceutical Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 195-214, April.
    4. Grabowski, Henry G & Vernon, John M, 1992. "Brand Loyalty, Entry, and Price Competition in Pharmaceuticals after the 1984 Drug Act," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(2), pages 331-350, October.
    5. Lillard, L.A. & Rogowski, J. & Kington, R., 1999. "Insurance Coverage for Prescription Drugs: Effects on Use and Expenditures in the Medicare Population," Papers 99-09, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    6. Frank Lichtenberg, 2005. "The Impact of New Drug Launches on Longevity: Evidence from Longitudinal, Disease-Level Data from 52 Countries, 1982–2001," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 47-73, January.
    7. Anna Merino, 2003. "Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment," Working Papers, Research Center on Health and Economics 704, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Margaret K. Kyle, 2007. "Pharmaceutical Price Controls and Entry Strategies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 88-99, February.
    9. Anna Merino, 2003. "Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment," Economics Working Papers 704, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Thomas A. Abbott & John A. Vernon, 2005. "The Cost of US Pharmaceutical Price Reductions: A Financial Simulation Model of R&D Decisions," NBER Working Papers 11114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lillard, L.A. & Rogowski, J. & Kington, R., 1999. "Insurance Coverage for Prescription Drugs: Effects on Use and Expenditures in the Medicare Population," Papers 99-09, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javad Moradpour & Aidan Hollis, 2020. "Patient income and health innovation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(12), pages 1795-1803, December.
    2. Agarwal, Ruchir & Gaule, Patrick, 2021. "What Drives Innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D," IZA Discussion Papers 14079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Jay Bhattacharya & Mikko Packalen, 2008. "Is Medicine an Ivory Tower? Induced Innovation, Technological Opportunity, and For-Profit vs. Non-Profit Innovation," NBER Working Papers 13862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Civan Abdulkadir & Maloney Michael T., 2009. "The Effect of Price on Pharmaceutical R&D," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
    5. Bhattacharya, Jay & Packalen, Mikko, 2011. "Opportunities and benefits as determinants of the direction of scientific research," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 603-615, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nebibe Varol & Joan Costa-i-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2011. "Explaining Early Adoption on New Medicines: Regulation, Innovation and Scale," CESifo Working Paper Series 3459, CESifo.
    2. Patricia M. Danzon & Eric L. Keuffel, 2014. "Regulation of the Pharmaceutical-Biotechnology Industry," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned?, pages 407-484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lee Branstetter & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matthew J. Higgins, 2016. "Regulation and welfare: evidence from paragraph IV generic entry in the pharmaceutical industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(4), pages 857-890, November.
    4. Joan Costa-Font & Alistair McGuire & Nebibe Varol, 2015. "Regulation effects on the adoption of new medicines," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1101-1121, November.
    5. Adriana Lleras-Muney & Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2002. "The Effect of Education on Medical Technology Adoption: Are the More Educated More Likely to Use New Drugs," NBER Working Papers 9185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Brekke, Kurt R. & Holmas, Tor Helge & Straume, Odd Rune, 2011. "Reference pricing, competition, and pharmaceutical expenditures: Theory and evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 624-638.
    7. Chatterjee, Chirantan & Kubo, Kensuke & Pingali, Viswanath, 2015. "The consumer welfare implications of governmental policies and firm strategy in markets for medicines," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 255-273.
    8. Joan Costa-i-Font & Alistair McGuire & Nebibe Varol, 2011. "Does Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Affect the Adoption of Generic Competition? Evidence from the OECD, 1999-2008," CESifo Working Paper Series 3441, CESifo.
    9. Brekke, Kurt R. & Holmås, Tor Helge & Straume, Odd Rune, 2015. "Price regulation and parallel imports of pharmaceuticals," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 92-105.
    10. Verniers, Isabel & Stremersch, Stefan & Croux, Christophe, 2011. "The global entry of new pharmaceuticals: A joint investigation of launch window and price," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 295-308.
    11. Brekke, Kurt R. & Canta, Chiara & Straume, Odd Rune, 2016. "Reference pricing with endogenous generic entry," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 312-329.
    12. Appelt, Silvia, 2010. "Authorized Generic Entry prior to Patent Expiry: Reassessing Incentives for Independent Generic Entry," Discussion Papers in Economics 11476, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    13. Zhou Yang & Donna B. Gilleskie & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Prescription Drugs, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Munkin M & Trivedi P. K, 2009. "Incentives and Selection Effects of Drug Coverage on Total Drug Expenditure: a Finite Mixture Approach," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 09/22, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    15. Johanna Vásquez Velásquez & José Vicente Cadavid Herrera & Andrés Ramírez Hassan & Karoll Gómez Portilla, 2013. "Elasticidad de la demanda por medicamentos en el mercado farmacéutico privado en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, June.
    16. Anna Merino, 2003. "Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment," Working Papers, Research Center on Health and Economics 705, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Qian Li & Pravin K. Trivedi, 2016. "Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 192-211, February.
    18. Aida Isabel Tavares, 0. "Generic substitution policy, an incentive approach," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-22.
    19. Arzi Adbi & Ajay Bhaskarabhatla & Chirantan Chatterjee, 2020. "Stakeholder Orientation and Market Impact: Evidence from India," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 479-496, January.
    20. Nasreen Khan & Robert Kaestner & Swu Jane Lin, 2007. "Prescription Drug Insurance and Its Effect on Utilization and Health of the Elderly," NBER Working Papers 12848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pharmaceuticals; Importation; Innovation; Cancer; Chemotherapy; Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:16:y:2007:i:6:p:403-417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GEIN20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GEIN20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.