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Valuing governmental support in infrastructure projects as real options using Monte Carlo simulation

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  • Charles Cheah
  • Jicai Liu

Abstract

In Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) infrastructure projects, host governments often provide subsidies, guarantees or alternative forms of support as incentives to attract private sector participation. A guaranteed level of minimum revenue, for example, can be specially designed to alleviate the concern of demand risk. Although researchers have generally acknowledged the significance of subsidies and guarantees leading toward successful negotiation, there is a lack of attempt to evaluate these concessions quantitatively. Without a deeper understanding of the value of these concessions, risk and reward may not be equitably matched in the proposed terms and arrangements. In this paper, relevant elements of a contractual package are treated as a form of real options. A proposition is put forward to incorporate the value of such options into the negotiation framework. By relying on simplifying assumptions on risk preferences, these options can be evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation of a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. The methodology is applied to the case of the Malaysia-Singapore Second Crossing, which shows that the value of a guarantee can indeed be significant relative to the basic net present value. The case study also highlights other aspects of flexibility in the design and execution of a project.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Cheah & Jicai Liu, 2006. "Valuing governmental support in infrastructure projects as real options using Monte Carlo simulation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 545-554.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:24:y:2006:i:5:p:545-554
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190500435572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Ping Ho & Liang Liu, 2002. "An option pricing-based model for evaluating the financial viability of privatized infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 143-156.
    2. Christopher M. Lewis & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "Risk Management Systems for Contingent Infrastructure Liabilities : Applications to Improve Contract Design and Monitoring," World Bank Publications - Reports 11538, The World Bank Group.
    3. Klein, Michael, 1997. "Managing guarantee programs in support of infrastructure investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1812, The World Bank.
    4. Michael Garvin & Charles Cheah, 2004. "Valuation techniques for infrastructure investment decisions," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 373-383.
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    1. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "A Two-Factor Uncertainty Model to Determine the Optimal Contractual Penalty for a Build-Own-Transfer Project," CEF.UP Working Papers 1308, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Determination of Socially Equitable Guarantees for PPPs: A Toll-Road Case from Turkey," Development Discussion Papers 2016-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    3. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie & Neil Quigley, 2012. "Contemporary Microeconomic Foundations for the Structure and Management of the Public Sector," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Miranda Sarmento, J. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Public-Private Partnerships : Risk Allocation and Value for Money," Other publications TiSEM b9218010-a357-4c0a-805a-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    6. Power, Gabriel J. & Burris, Mark & Vadali, Sharada & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2016. "Valuation of strategic options in public–private partnerships," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 50-68.
    7. Shi, Shasha & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2020. "Optimal choice of capacity, toll, and subsidy for build-operate-transfer roads with a paid minimum traffic guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-254.
    8. Jiangang Shi & Kaifeng Duan & Guangdong Wu & Rui Zhang & Xiaowei Feng, 2020. "Comprehensive metrological and content analysis of the public–private partnerships (PPPs) research field: a new bibliometric journey," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2145-2184, September.
    9. Kangsoo Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2019. "Financing for a Sustainable PPP Development: Valuation of the Contractual Rights under Exercise Conditions for an Urban Railway PPP Project in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Taeil Park & Byungil Kim & Hyoungkwan Kim, 2012. "Impact of Deterioration and Negotiation on Sewer System O&M Contracts from the Real Option Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(10), pages 2973-2989, August.
    11. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Evaluating Minimum-Traffic Guarantees for PPPs in Turkey by Real-Option Pricing," Development Discussion Papers 2016-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    12. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, September.
    13. Antonella Lomoro & Giorgio Mossa & Roberta Pellegrino & Luigi Ranieri, 2020. "Optimizing Risk Allocation in Public-Private Partnership Projects by Project Finance Contracts. The Case of Put-or-Pay Contract for Stranded Posidonia Disposal in the Municipality of Bari," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, January.
    14. Yanhua Du & Jun Fang & Yongjian Ke & Simon P Philbin & Jingxiao Zhang, 2019. "Developing a Revenue Sharing Method for an Operational Transfer-Operate-Transfer Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-19, November.
    15. Hongyan Chen & Ruwen Qin, 2012. "Real options as an incentive scheme for managing revenues in transportation infrastructure projects," International Journal of Revenue Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1/2), pages 77-101.
    16. Krüger, Niclas A., 2012. "To kill a real option – Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1359-1371.
    17. Duan, Suling & Adam, Brian D., 2018. "Optimal Timing Of Insect Control In Food Processing Facilities: A Real Options Approach," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274061, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Taeil Park & Changyoon Kim & Hyoungkwan Kim, 2014. "Valuation of Drainage Infrastructure Improvement Under Climate Change Using Real Options," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 445-457, January.
    19. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Cui, Qingbin & Zhang, Limao, 2015. "Strategic design of cost savings guarantee in energy performance contracting under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 68-80.
    20. Sungchul Kim & Ronald Giachetti & Sangsung Park, 2018. "Real Options Analysis for Acquisition of New Technology: A Case Study of Korea K2 Tank’s Powerpack," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    21. Lee, Hyounkyu & Park, Taeil & Kim, Byungil & Kim, Kyeongseok & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2013. "A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 360-368.

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