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Quantifying the relationship between aggregate GDP and construction value added in a small petroleum rich economy - a case study of Trinidad and Tobago

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  • Roger Hosein
  • Timothy Michael Lewis

Abstract

The relationship between gross domestic product and the output of the construction industry is quantified, using as a case study the economy of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T). A historical perspective is used in order that anomalies can be set within the context of the relevant time and circumstances. Because the economy of Trinidad and Tobago is highly dependent on oil and gas revenues, the relationships between construction value added, GDP and oil and gas industry parameters are also included. In nearly all instances there are positive relationships between the parameters examined, and values for the various correlation coefficients have been obtained. An examination of causal factors obtained from a cumulative experience analysis also establishes that the direction of causality runs from the changes in GDP to the increase in construction value added, both at the aggregate level and at the per capita level. A similar positive relationship and direction of temporal causality is apparent between oil and gas revenues (and prices) and construction value added. These relationships are untypical, as smaller developing economies that do not have oil resources would be expected to show negative correlations for these relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Hosein & Timothy Michael Lewis, 2005. "Quantifying the relationship between aggregate GDP and construction value added in a small petroleum rich economy - a case study of Trinidad and Tobago," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 185-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:23:y:2005:i:2:p:185-197
    DOI: 10.1080/0144619042000287741
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Strassmann, W Paul, 1970. "The Construction Sector in Economic Development," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 391-409, November.
    2. Timothy Michael Lewis, 2004. "The construction industry in the economy of Trinidad & Tobago," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 541-549.
    3. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2001. "Does Money Illusion Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1239-1262, December.
    4. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Girardi & Antonio Mura, 2014. "The Construction-Development Curve: Evidence from a New International Dataset," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-26, July.
    2. Elena IONAȘCU, 2019. "The Dynamic Relationship Between The Residential Real Estate Markets, Macro – Economy And Institutional Development: Evidence From Eu Countries," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 75-107.
    3. Leonida Correia & Maria Joao Ribeiro, 2023. "Macroeconomics and the Construction Sector: Evidence from Portugal," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 9(1), pages 9-26, January.
    4. Erol, Isil & Unal, Umut, 2015. "Role of Construction Sector in Economic Growth: New Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 68263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rafał Balina & Marta Idasz-Balina & Noer Azam Achsani, 2021. "Predicting Insolvency of the Construction Companies in the Creditworthiness Assessment Process—Empirical Evidence from Poland," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-16, September.

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