Exports, Growth and Causality:An Application of Co-Integration and Error-correction Modelling
This paper investigates the direction of causation between exports growth and economic growth. This issue has been widely investigated in the past in the context of the suitability of export promotion versus import substitution as development strategies. The traditional practice has been to utilise the Granger causality test to examine the direction of causality. Recent developments in econometric techniques have highlighted at least two shortcomings in the application of the standard Granger causality test. These include the stationary properties of the series and the co-integration of variables included in the analysis. The present paper, while investigating the direction of causation between exports growth and economic growth and using the Granger causality test, has taken into account these two shortcomings. The paper finds a stable, long-run two-way relationship between exports (as well as manufactured exports) and output, but a one- way stable relationship between output and primary exports. Furthermore, the paper also finds a bi-directional causation between exports (both primary and manufactured) growth and economic growth. Based on these findings, it is recommended that export promotion policy with a major emphasis on manufactured exports must be vigorously pursued to achieve a higher rate of economic growth.
|Date of creation:||1995|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
- Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
- Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)