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Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling

  • Ashfaque H. Khan

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Afia Malik

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Lubna Hasan

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

The relationship between export expansion and economic growth has been examined extensively during the last two decades in the context of the suitability of the alternative development strategies. The decade of the 1970s witnessed an emerging consensus in favour of export promotion as development strategy. Such a consensus was based on the following facts. First, higher export earnings working through alleviating foreign exchange constraints may enhance the ability of a developing country to import more industrial raw materials and capital goods, which, in turn, may expand its productive capacity. Secondly, the competition in export markets abroad may lead to the exploitation of economies of scale, greater capacity utilisation, efficient resource allocation, and an acceleration of technical progress in production. Thirdly, given the theoretical arguments mentioned above, the observed strong correlation between exports and economic growth was interpreted as empirical evidence in favour of export promotion as a development strategy.

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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 34 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1001-1012

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1001-1012
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  1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  2. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  5. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  6. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
  7. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
  8. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
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