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Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis

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  • Tekin, Rıfat Barış

Abstract

This paper investigates potential Granger causality among the real GDP, real exports and inward FDI in Least Developed Countries for the period between 1970 and 2009. A new panel-data approach developed in Kónya (2006) [Kónya (2006), Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach, Economic Modelling, 23, 978–992] which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values has been employed. The results indicate direct, one-period-ahead, unidirectional causality from exports to GDP in Haiti, Rwanda and Sierra Leone, and from GDP to exports in Angola, Chad and Zambia. Considering the FDI–Growth nexus, there is evidence of FDI Granger-causing GDP in Benin and Togo, and GDP Granger-causing FDI in Burkina Faso, Gambia, Madagascar and Malawi. While studying EXP–FDI relations, this paper finds that the causality is from FDI to real exports in Benin, Chad, Haiti, Mauritania, Niger, Togo and Yemen, and from real exports to FDI in Haiti, Madagascar, Mauritania, Malawi, Rwanda, Senegal and Zambia.

Suggested Citation

  • Tekin, Rıfat Barış, 2012. "Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 868-878.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:868-878
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.10.013
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    2. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2017. "Electricity Consumption and Exports Growth: Revisiting the Feedback Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 81756, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    3. Hsueh, Shun-Jen & Hu, Yu-Hau & Tu, Chien-Heng, 2013. "Economic growth and financial development in Asian countries: A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 294-301.
    4. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    5. Amri, Fethi, 2016. "The relationship amongst energy consumption, foreign direct investment and output in developed and developing Countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 694-702.
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    8. Lim, Shiok Ye & Ho, Chong Mun, 2013. "Nonlinearity in ASEAN-5 export-led growth model: Empirical evidence from nonparametric approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 136-145.
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    14. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "Exports Multiplicity and The Dutch Disease," MPRA Paper 77919, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    15. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2017. "On the Effects of the BRICS on World Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 81757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    16. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Abbasi, Faiza & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2014. "Relationship between Remittance, Export, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: A Panel Cointegration and Causal Analysis in South Asia," MPRA Paper 60290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Growth-led exports; Foreign direct investment; Least Developed Countries; Granger causality; Bootstrapping;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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