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Long range dependence in stock market returns

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  • Christos Christodoulou-Volos
  • Fotios Siokis

Abstract

Many authors have investigated the possibility of long-range dependence, or long memory, in asset returns, but very little evidence has been found for long memory in either stock or exchange rate returns. This paper examines the presence of long-range dependence in a sample of 34 stock index returns using the semiparametric methods suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) and Robinson (1995). The results provide significant and robust evidence of fractional dynamics in most major and small stock markets over the sample periods. Depending on the test used, statistically significant long memory is detected in approximately 65% of the series. It appears that most stock returns are long-term dependent, suggesting stock market inefficiency and a high degree of predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Christodoulou-Volos & Fotios Siokis, 2006. "Long range dependence in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1331-1338.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:18:p:1331-1338
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600829519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-165, February.
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    4. Sadique, Shibley & Silvapulle, Param, 2001. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 59-67, January.
    5. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    6. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 2013. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 739-764, November.
    7. John Barkoulas & Christopher Baum & Nickolaos Travlos, 2000. "Long memory in the Greek stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 177-184.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
    9. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Chikhi & Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Michel Terraza, 2013. "SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 249-265, February.
    2. Korkmaz, Turhan & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Özataç, Nesrin, 2009. "Testing for long memory in ISE using Arfima-Figarch model and structural break test," MPRA Paper 71302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kian-Ping Lim & Weiwei Luo & Jae H. Kim, 2013. "Are US stock index returns predictable? Evidence from automatic autocorrelation-based tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 953-962, March.
    4. Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2012. "İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda etkin piyasa hipotezinin uzun hafıza modelleri ile analizi: sektörel bazda bir inceleme
      [The testing of efficient market hypothesis in the Istanbul Stock Excha
      ," MPRA Paper 71484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    5. repec:eee:phsmap:v:490:y:2018:i:c:p:1295-1308 is not listed on IDEAS

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