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Economic cycles and downside commodities risk

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  • Robert J. Powell
  • Duc H. Vo
  • Thach N. Pham

Abstract

We de-compose the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index into its underlying commodity sub-categories and develop a modified conditional value at risk (CVaR) metric to examine downside risk linked to economic periods which are classified by their GDP growth as green, yellow, orange and red. We term this new metric economic CVaR (ECVaR). We found significant differences in the relative ECVaR rankings of different commodities over our different economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Powell & Duc H. Vo & Thach N. Pham, 2018. "Economic cycles and downside commodities risk," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 258-263, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:258-263
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1316818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ngoc Phu Tran & Thang Cong Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Market Risk Analysis of Energy in Vietnam," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Hung Quang Bui & Thao Tran & Hung Le-Phuc Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo, 2022. "The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, policy responses and macroeconomic fundamentals on market risks across sectors in Vietnam," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Ray-Ming Chen, 2022. "Economic Categorizing Based on DFT-induced Supervised Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 125-150, January.
    4. Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Portfolio Optimization and Diversification in China: Policy Implications for Vietnam and Other Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 223-238, January.
    5. Duc Hong Vo & Quang Van Tuan & Trung Vu-Thanh Pham, 2019. "Sectoral Risks in Vietnam and Malaysia A Comparative Analysis," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 62-87, March.
    6. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Hoang Huy Nguyen & Chi Minh Ho & Duc Hong Vo, 2019. "An Empirical Test of Capital Structure Theories for the Vietnamese Listed Firms," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-11, September.

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