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A capital adequacy buffer model

Listed author(s):
  • D. E. Allen
  • M. McAleer
  • R. J. Powell
  • A. K. Singh

We develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) that is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model, which measures distance to default and the timeless capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which measures additional returns to compensate for additional share price risk. We apply the model to a portfolio of mid-cap loan assets over a 10-year period that includes pre-GFC (global financial crisis), GFC and post-GFC. An analysis of actual defaults over this period shows the model to be far more accurate in determining the capital adequacy levels needed to counter credit risk than an unresponsive ratings model such as the Basel standardized approach.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2015.1061639
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 23 (2016)
Issue (Month): 3 (February)
Pages: 175-179

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:175-179
DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1061639
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  1. Bucher, Monika & Dietrich, Diemo & Hauck, Achim, 2013. "Business cycles, bank credit and crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 229-231.
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
  3. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
  4. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  5. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  6. Kretzschmar, Gavin & McNeil, Alexander J. & Kirchner, Axel, 2010. "Integrated models of capital adequacy - Why banks are undercapitalised," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2838-2850, December.
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