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Risk Analysis of Energy in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Vo, D.H.
  • Tran, N.P.
  • Duong, T.N.-T.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to estimate market risk for the ten major industries in Vietnam. The focus is on the Energy sector, which has been designated as one of the four key industries, together with Services, Food, and Telecommunications, targeted for economic development by the Vietnam Government through to 2020. Oil and Gas is a separate energy-related major industry. The data set is from 2009 to 2017, which is decomposed into two distinct sub-periods after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), namely the immediate post-GFC (2009-2011) period and the normal (2012-2017) period, in order to identify the behaviour of market risk for Vietnam major industries. Two widely-used approaches to measure and analyze risk are used in the empirical analysis, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The empirical findings indicate that Energy and Pharmaceuticals are the least risky industries, whereas Oil and Gas and Securities have the greatest risk. In general, there is strong empirical evidence that the four key industries display relatively low risk. For public policy, the Vietnam Government’s pro-active emphasis on the targeted industries, including Energy, to achieve sustainable economic growth and national economic development, seems to be working effectively

Suggested Citation

  • Vo, D.H. & Tran, N.P. & Duong, T.N.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Risk Analysis of Energy in Vietnam," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:115616
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Imran Hunjra & Tahar Tayachi & Rashid Mehmood & Sidra Malik & Zoya Malik, 2020. "Impact of Credit Risk on Momentum and Contrarian Strategies: Evidence from South Asian Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Thang Cong Nguyen & Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Michael McAleer, 2020. "Systematic Risk at the Industry Level: A Case Study of Australia," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-12, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market risk; Energy; Industries; Value-at-Risk; Conditional Value-at-Risk; Sustainable growth; Economic development; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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