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Sovereign credit default swaps and the macroeconomy

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  • Yang Liu
  • Bruce Morley

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine whether the domestic economy as represented by the interest rate, the international economic status as represented by the exchange rate or both determine sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. Using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Granger noncausality tests, the results suggest that it is the exchange rate that has the most important effect on sovereign CDS spreads, with domestic interest rates having only a limited effect. There is also some evidence of causality running from the CDS spread to the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Liu & Bruce Morley, 2012. "Sovereign credit default swaps and the macroeconomy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 129-132, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:129-132
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.568390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skinner, Frank S. & Townend, Timothy G., 2002. "An empirical analysis of credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-309.
    2. Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998. "A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    3. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Cheng, Xiaolin & Chen, Ren-Raw, 2007. "Exploring the components of credit risk in credit default swaps," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 10-18, March.
    4. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    5. Frank Skinner & Antonio Diaz, 2002. "An Empirical Study of Credit Default Swaps," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Jan 2003.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilal Kargi, 2014. "Credit Default Swap (Cds) Spreads: The Analysis Of Time Series For The Interaction With The Interest Rates And The Growth In Turkish Economy," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 10(1), pages 59-66.
    2. Mathias Manguzvane & Mduduzi Biyase, 2023. "Exchange rate risk and sovereign debt risk in South Africa: A Regime Dependent Approach," Economics Working Papers edwrg-04-2023, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, revised 2023.
    3. Kutuk, Yasin & Barokas, Lina, 2022. "Multivariate CDS risk premium prediction with SOTA RNNs on MI[N]T countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Ahmet Kahiloğulları, 2018. "Relationship between credit default swaps, direct foreign investments and Portfolio investments: Time Series Analysis for Turkey," Prizren Social Science Journal, SHIKS, vol. 2(3), pages 50-62, December.

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