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Currency total return swaps: valuation and risk factor analysis

Author

Listed:
  • ROMAIN CUCHET
  • PASCAL FRANÇOIS
  • GEORGES HÜBNER

Abstract

Currency total return swaps (CTRS) are hybrid derivative instruments that allow us to simultaneously hedge against credit and currency risks. We develop a structural credit risk model to evaluate CTRS premia. An empirical test on a sample of 23,005 price observations from 59 underlying issuers yields an average percentage error of around 10%. This indicates that, beyond interest rate risk, firm-specific factors are major drivers of the variations in the valuation of these instruments. Regression analysis of residuals shows that exchange rate determinants account for up to 40% of model pricing errors, indicating that a currency risk premium affects the CTRS price significantly but only marginally, which confirms the prevalence of credit risk in the pricing of CTRS.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Cuchet & Pascal François & Georges Hübner, 2013. "Currency total return swaps: valuation and risk factor analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1135-1148, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:13:y:2013:i:7:p:1135-1148
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2013.775475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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