Currency Total Return Swaps: Valuation and Risk Factor Analysis
Currency total return swaps (CTRS) are hybrid derivatives instruments that allow to simultaneously hedge against credit and currency risks. We develop a structural credit risk model to evaluate CTRS premia. Empirical test on a sample of 23,005 price observations from 59 underlying issuers yields an average percentage error of around 10%. This indicates that, beyond interest rate risk, firm-specific factors are major drivers of the variations in the valuation of these instruments. Regression analysis of residuals shows that exchange rate determinants account for up to 40% of model pricing errors – indicating that a currency risk premium affects the CTRS price significantly but only marginally, which confirms the prevalence of credit risk in the pricing of CTRS.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CP 8888, succursale Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8|
Phone: (514) 987-8161
Web page: http://www.cirpee.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009.
"The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 109-132, February.
- Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo-Helfenberger, Rodolfo, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," SIFR Research Report Series 32, Institute for Financial Research.
- Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Rodolfo A. Oviedo, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-55, CIRANO.
- Jin-Chuan Duan & Jean-Guy Simonato, 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Exponential Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. "Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-135, September.
- Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June.
- Gaiyan Zhang & Jot Yau & Hung-Gay Fung, 2010. "Do credit default swaps predict currency values?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 439-458.
- Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
- Kaushik I. Amin & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008.
"Pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 14, pages 307-326
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Amin, Kaushik I. & Jarrow, Robert A., 1991. "Pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 310-329, September.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
- Fan, Joseph P. H. & Titman, Sheridan & Twite, Garry, 2012. "An International Comparison of Capital Structure and Debt Maturity Choices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 23-56, April.
- Frank Skinner & Antonio Diaz, 2002. "An Empirical Study of Credit Default Swaps," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-04, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Jan 2003.
- Skinner, Frank S. & Townend, Timothy G., 2002. "An empirical analysis of credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-309.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Manuel Paradis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.