IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v20y2010i6p439-458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do credit default swaps predict currency values?

Author

Listed:
  • Gaiyan Zhang
  • Jot Yau
  • Hung-Gay Fung

Abstract

Using daily data of four currencies (Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP) and Australian Dollar (AUD)) in terms of the US Dollar (USD), and JPY, USD, GBP and AUD in terms of the EUR from January 2004 to February 2008, we examine the lead-lag relationship between the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market and the currency market. Results indicate significant Granger-causality effects flowing from changes in both the North American investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) CDS indices to changes in the JPY, EUR and AUD exchange rates in terms of the USD for the whole period and during the credit crisis of 2007 to 2008. However, for the four currencies in terms of the EUR, significant Granger-causality of the credit risk is found only in the AUD. Our results indicate that changes in CDS index spreads signal important carry-trade information for some currencies, but not others.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaiyan Zhang & Jot Yau & Hung-Gay Fung, 2010. "Do credit default swaps predict currency values?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 439-458.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:6:p:439-458
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100903459774
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100903459774
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Romain Cuchet & Pascal François & Georges Hübner, 2013. "Currency total return swaps: valuation and risk factor analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1135-1148, February.
    2. Rahmi Erdem Aktug, 2015. "Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(1), pages 17-36, March.
    3. Fung, Hung-Gay & Tse, Yiuman & Zhao, Lin, 2013. "Are stock markets in Asia related to carry trade?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 200-216.
    4. Tse, Yiuman & Wald, John K., 2013. "Insured uncovered interest parity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 175-183.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:6:p:439-458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.