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Insured Uncovered Interest Parity

Author

Listed:
  • Yiuman Tse
  • John K. Wald

    (UTSA)

Abstract

The current literature suggests that uncovered interest parity (UIP) does not hold because of differences in risk in holding different currency denominated debt. We test whether this risk is related to sovereign credit risk in government bonds. We consider an insured uncovered interest parity relationship – that is, one where debt is insured with credit default swap (CDS) contracts. CDS rates help explain the UIP puzzle, but have no predictive power for currency movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiuman Tse & John K. Wald, 2013. "Insured Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 0172fin, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsa:wpaper:0172fin
    as

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    File URL: http://interim.business.utsa.edu/wps/fin/0008FIN-452-2013.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
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    6. Chen, Ren-Raw & Cheng, Xiaolin & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Liu, Bo, 2008. "An Explicit, Multi-Factor Credit Default Swap Pricing Model with Correlated Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 123-160, March.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mehmet Altuntas, 2021. "The Interest Rate Parity in Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 327-349, July.
    3. Kesse, Kwabena & Blenman, Lloyd P., 2024. "Political risks, excess and carry trade returns in global markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.
    5. Wu, Yimin, 2024. "Estimating the precise form of uncovered interest parity under the Stock–Watson dynamic OLS approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    6. Chen, Zilin & Gang, Jianhua & Qian, Zongxin, 2021. "Stock returns and carry trades," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Wu, Wei & Li, Zhuoran & Feng, Xuan, 2024. "International interest rate arbitrage: Study on a novel strategy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered interest parity; carry trade; CDS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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