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Eurasian economic integration: impact evaluation using the gravity model and the synthetic control methods

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  • Amat Adarov

    (The World Bank
    Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)

Abstract

The study examines the impact of Eurasian integration at aggregate country and industry levels using the gravity model of trade and the synthetic control methods. We find that the establishment of the Eurasian Customs Union in 2010 and its further deepening resulted in notable trade creation effects with particularly sizable gains attributed to the commodities and chemicals sectors. The effects on other sectors, including textiles, machinery and transportation, while initially positive and significant, largely dissipated by the year 2015. The analysis also finds that the Eurasian integration, on average, has also facilitated trade with non-bloc trading partners. The results, however, are highly heterogeneous across the members of the bloc. The net impact on trade flows of Eurasian integration was overwhelmingly positive for Belarus, generally positive for Russia and mixed for Kazakhstan.

Suggested Citation

  • Amat Adarov, 2023. "Eurasian economic integration: impact evaluation using the gravity model and the synthetic control methods," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 467-504, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:159:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10290-022-00473-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-022-00473-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Augusto Cerqua & Pierluigi Montalbano & Zhansaya Temerbulatova, 2021. "A decade of Eurasian Integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian Economic Union," Working Papers 1/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev, 2023. "Factor Endowments, Economic Integration, Sanctions, and Offshores: Evidence from Inward FDI in Russia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(4), pages 617-649, December.
    3. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev, 2022. "Friends with or without benefits? An empirical evaluation of bilateral trade and economic integration between some of the post-Soviet economies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 769-795, December.
    4. Amat Adarov & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "The impact of the Eurasian Economic Union–Iran preferential trade agreement on mutual trade at aggregate and sectoral levels," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 125-157, March.
    5. Amat Adarov, 2021. "Central, East and Southeast European Countries in the Global Value Chain Network," wiiw Policy Notes 51, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Alessandro Ferrari & Matteo Fiorini & Joseph Francois, Bernard Hoekman, Lisa Maria Lechner, Miriam Manchin, Filippo Santi, 2021. "EU Trade Agreements and Non-Trade Policy Objectives," RSCAS Working Papers 2021/48, European University Institute.
    7. Amat Adarov & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2020. "The Impact of the EAEU-Iran Preferential Trade Agreement," wiiw Working Papers 179, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Adam Pochmara & Jan Jakub Michałek, 2023. "The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method," Working Papers 2023-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurasian integration; Customs union; Transition economies; Integration effects; Gravity model of trade; Synthetic counterfactual;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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