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An Initial Estimation of the Economic Effects of the Creation of the EurAsEC Customs Union on Its Members

Author

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  • Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio

    (World Bank)

Abstract

This note provides an initial estimation of some of the economic effects of creating the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) customs union. Relying on the computable general equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), results of the simulations consistently support the conclusion that, as an arrangement, the EurAsEC customs union (CU) would be a GDP-reducing framework in which the negative trade-diversion effects surpass positive trade-creation ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2011. "An Initial Estimation of the Economic Effects of the Creation of the EurAsEC Customs Union on Its Members," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 47, pages 1-7, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep47
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marina Bakanova & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-053/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Marina Bakanova & L303272cio Vinhas de Souza, 2001. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization, The Case of Belarus," International Trade 0108005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Plekhanov & Asel Isakova, 2012. "Customs Union and Kazakhstan's Imports," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 442, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    2. World Bank, 2012. "Kazakhstan," World Bank Publications - Reports 26850, The World Bank Group.
    3. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev, 2022. "Friends with or without benefits? An empirical evaluation of bilateral trade and economic integration between some of the post-Soviet economies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 769-795, December.
    4. World Bank, 2012. "Kazakhstan : Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs," World Bank Publications - Reports 12299, The World Bank Group.
    5. Muravska Tatyana & Berlin Alexandre, 2014. "The EU-Eastern Partnership Countries: Association Agreements and Transdisciplinarity in Studies, Training and Research," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 1-16, October.
    6. World Bank, 2012. "Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs Union for Kazakhstan," World Bank Publications - Reports 2722, The World Bank Group.
    7. Augusto Cerqua & Pierluigi Montalbano & Zhansaya Temerbulatova, 2021. "A decade of Eurasian Integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian Economic Union," Working Papers 1/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    8. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Eurasian economic integration: impact evaluation using the gravity model and the synthetic control methods," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 467-504, May.
    9. Amat Adarov & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "The impact of the Eurasian Economic Union–Iran preferential trade agreement on mutual trade at aggregate and sectoral levels," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 125-157, March.
    10. Ulyukaev, Sergey (Улюкаев, Сергей) & Sheryay, K. I. (Шеряй, К. И.), 2014. "Conceptual Bases of Effective Use of the Integration Potential of the CIS [Концептуальные Основы Эффективного Использования Интеграционного Потенциала Стран-Членов Снг]," Published Papers om20, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; customs union; Russia; East Europe; EU; WTO; EurAsEC; Global Trade Analysis Project; GDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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