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Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization, The Case of Belarus

  • Marina Bakanova

    (Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus)

  • L\303\272cio Vinhas de Souza

    (Tinbergen Institute,Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR period and the years since independence revealed that unlike its close neighbors (the Baltic States and Poland) Belarus did not succeed in changing the commodity or the geographical structure of its trade. It is almost a good representation of reality to say that Belarus trades with Russia. The assessment of the rationale for the closer integration with Russia and the impact of this process on Belarus growth led us to the conclusion that the integration in the form of a non-exclusive Free Trade Area and within the framework of a wider set of international connections rather than the move towards a Customs Union (and a Union State) with Russia would be a more optimal policy for Belarus. This conclusion is supported by the results of country-specific growth regressions and of a counterfactual "free trade experiment" via a small CGE model

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0108005.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 06 Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0108005
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP; pages: 31; figures: included
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Tarr, David G., 1993. "How moving to world prices affects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1074, The World Bank.
  2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 1993. "Indirect transfers in trade among former Soviet Union Republics: Sources, patterns and policy responses in the post-Soviet period," Kiel Working Papers 556, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
  5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
  6. L├╝cke, Matthias, 1995. "The impact of accession to GATT on trade-related policies of CIS countries: the case of Belarus," Kiel Working Papers 678, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Breuss, Fritz & Tesche, Jean, 1993. "Hungary in transition: a computable general equilibrium model comparison with Austria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 581-623.
  8. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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