IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpit/0108005.html

Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization, The Case of Belarus

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Bakanova

    (Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus)

  • L303272cio Vinhas de Souza

    (Tinbergen Institute,Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR period and the years since independence revealed that unlike its close neighbors (the Baltic States and Poland) Belarus did not succeed in changing the commodity or the geographical structure of its trade. It is almost a good representation of reality to say that Belarus trades with Russia. The assessment of the rationale for the closer integration with Russia and the impact of this process on Belarus growth led us to the conclusion that the integration in the form of a non-exclusive Free Trade Area and within the framework of a wider set of international connections rather than the move towards a Customs Union (and a Union State) with Russia would be a more optimal policy for Belarus. This conclusion is supported by the results of country-specific growth regressions and of a counterfactual "free trade experiment" via a small CGE model

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Bakanova & L303272cio Vinhas de Souza, 2001. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization, The Case of Belarus," International Trade 0108005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0108005
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP; pages: 31; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/it/papers/0108/0108005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucjan Orlowski, 1993. "Indirect transfers in trade among former Soviet Union Republics: Sources, patterns and policy responses in the Post‐Soviet period," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 1001-1024.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
    4. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 2000/030, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Breuss, Fritz & Tesche, Jean, 1993. "Hungary in transition: a computable general equilibrium model comparison with Austria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 581-623.
    6. Tarr, David G., 1993. "How moving to world prices affects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1074, The World Bank.
    7. Lücke, Matthias, 1995. "The impact of accession to GATT on trade-related policies of CIS countries: the case of Belarus," Kiel Working Papers 678, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2004. "A Wider Europe: Trade Relations Between an Enlarged EU and the Russian Federation," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0279, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Getachew, Asgedom Tessema & Tadele, Ferede & Arega, Hailu & Fantu, Guta, 2005. "The Impact of Regional Economic Cooperation on the Ethiopian Manufacturing Sector: the Case of Common Market for Southern and Eastern Free Trade Area (COMESA-FTA)," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 10(01), pages 1-98, May.
    3. Irina Tochitskaya & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2009. "Trade relations between an enlarged EU and the Russian Federation, and its effects in Belarus," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, May.
    4. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2011. "An Initial Estimation of the Economic Effects of the Creation of the EurAsEC Customs Union on Its Members," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 47, pages 1-7, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marina Bakanova & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-053/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Bernard, A. & Haurie, A. & Vielle, M. & Viguier, L., 2008. "A two-level dynamic game of carbon emission trading between Russia, China, and Annex B countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1830-1856, June.
    3. Langhammer, Rolf J. & Lücke, Matthias, 1995. "Trade among the Post-Soviet states: evolution and policy issues," Kiel Working Papers 708, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    5. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 157-183, May.
    6. World Bank, 2004. "Belarus - Poverty Assessment: Can Poverty Reduction and Access to Services Be Sustained?," World Bank Publications - Reports 14425, The World Bank Group.
    7. Avanesyan, Vahram & Freinkman, Lev, 2002. "Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition," MPRA Paper 10012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sukiassyan, Grigor, 2007. "Inequality and growth: What does the transition economy data say?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 35-56, March.
    9. Hildebrandt, Antje, 2002. "Too many to fail? : Inter-enterprise arrears in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Andreea Vass, 2005. "Romania and the trade and the development approaches to CEE convergence with the EU, under the competitive pressures of integration," IWE Working Papers 151, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Tommaso Nannicini & Andreas Billmeier, 2011. "Economies in Transition: How Important Is Trade Openness for Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 287-314, June.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jan & Tichit, Ariane, 2009. "Mind the break! Accounting for changing patterns of growth during transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 138-154, June.
    13. Iwasaki, Ichiro & 岩﨑, 一郎 & イワサキ, イチロウ, 2003. "Transition Strategies and Economic Performances in the Former Soviet States: A Comparative Institutional View," Discussion Paper Series a433, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. Nauro F. Campos, 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp146, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Aleksynska, Mariya & Gaisford, James & Kerr, William, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 7668, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2003.
    16. Sharun W. Mukand & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "In Search of the Holy Grail: Policy Convergence, Experimentation, and Economic Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 374-383, March.
    17. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    18. János Gács, 1999. "Teilprojekt 2: Macroeconomic Developments in the Candidate Countries with Respect to the Accession Process," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 13584.
    19. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2001. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," Transition Economics Series 20, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    20. Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions," wiiw Working Papers 36, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0108005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.