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Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization

Author

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  • Marina Bakanova

    (Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium)

  • Lúcio Vinhas de Souza

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Free University of Brussels)

Abstract

This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR period and the years since independence revealed that unlike its close neighbors (the Baltic States and Poland) Belarus did not succeed in changing the commodity or the geographical structure of its trade. It is almost a good representation of reality to say that Belarus trades with Russia. The assessment of the rationale for the closer integration with Russia and the impact of this process on Belarus growth led us to the conclusion that the integration in the form of a non-exclusive Free Trade Area and within the framework of a wider set of international connections rather than the move towards a Customs Union (and a Union State) with Russia would be a more optimal policy for Belarus. This conclusion is supported by the results of country-specific growth regressions and of a counterfactual "free trade experiment" via a small CGE model. This paper is partially based on the work by the Authors for the World Bank Global Development Network (GDN) Research Project "Explaining Growth in the CIS Countries".

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Bakanova & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-053/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20020053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
    3. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
    4. Breuss, Fritz & Tesche, Jean, 1993. "Hungary in transition: a computable general equilibrium model comparison with Austria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 581-623.
    5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Integration, disintegration and trade in Europe: Evolution of trade relations during the 1990s," ZEI Working Papers B 03-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    6. Tarr, David G., 1993. "How moving to world prices affects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1074, The World Bank.
    7. Lücke, Matthias, 1995. "The impact of accession to GATT on trade-related policies of CIS countries: the case of Belarus," Kiel Working Papers 678, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brantley Liddle, 2006. "Sustainable Development and Globalization in a World with Unequal Starting Points," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Masayuki Doi (ed.), Computable General Equilibrium Approaches In Urban And Regional Policy Studies, chapter 15, pages 323-355, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/217, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2004. "A Wider Europe: Trade Relations Between an Enlarged EU and the Russian Federation," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0279, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Irina Tochitskaya & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2009. "Trade relations between an enlarged EU and the Russian Federation, and its effects in Belarus," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2011. "An Initial Estimation of the Economic Effects of the Creation of the EurAsEC Customs Union on Its Members," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 47, pages 1-7, January.
    6. Duran Lima, José E. & de Miguel, Carlos J. & Schuschny, Andrés R., 2005. "Andean Countries and USA: How much can be expected from FTAs?," Conference papers 331396, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE models; growth; transition economics; international trade; economic integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

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