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Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?

  • Thomas Krichel
  • Paul Levine
  • Joseph Pearlman

The paper examines the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country monetary union. The worst scenario occurs when an independent central bank (CB sets the nominal interest rate and responds to rising government debt/GDP ratios by monetisation. The result is high inflation, high debt/GDP ratios and a large public sector. Government debt and inflation are contained if the governments bear sole responsibility for solvency, but the public sector remains excessively large. The best scenario occurs if the CB removes the incentive for the governments to engineer surprise inflation by credible inflation targeting.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02707901
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.

Volume (Year): 132 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 28-54

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:132:y:1996:i:1:p:28-54
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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  3. Willem H. Buiter & Urjit R. Patel, 1990. "Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finances of India," NBER Working Papers 3287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Brociner, Andrew & Levine, Paul L, 1992. "Fiscal Policy Coordination and EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1988. "Optimal Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy with Finite Lifetimes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 411-32, March.
  7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  8. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Fiscal Policies and the World Economy; An Intertemporal Approach (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987)," MPRA Paper 20438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Buiter, Willem H. & Kletzer, Kenneth M., 1991. "The welfare economics of cooperative and noncooperative fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 215-244.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521319867 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521104609 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Levine, Paul & Currie, David, 1987. "Does International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Pay and Is It Sustainable?: A Two Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 38-74, March.
  13. Levine, Paul, 1993. "Fiscal Policy Co-ordination under EMU and the Choice of Monetary Instrument," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(0), pages 1-12, Suppl..
  14. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
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