IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v52y2018i4d10.1007_s11135-017-0581-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method

Author

Listed:
  • Goran Dominioni

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Addolorata Marasco

    (University of Naples Federico II)

  • Alessandro Romano

    (China University of Political Science and Law
    Yale Law School)

Abstract

Globalization and migratory fluxes are increasing the ethnic and racial diversity within many countries. Therefore, describing social dynamics requires models that are apt to capture multi-groups interactions. Building on the assumption of a relationship between multi-racial dynamics and socioeconomic status (SES), we introduce an aggregate, contextual, and continuous index of SES accounting for measures of income, employment, expected life, and group numerosity. After, taking into account that groups’ SES assumes the form of a logit model, we propose a Lotka–Volterra system to study and forecast the interaction among racial groups. Last, we apply our methodology to describe the racial dynamics in the US society. In particular, we study the kind and the intensity of Asians–Blacks–Natives–Whites interactions in the US between 2002 and 2013. Moreover, we forecast the evolution of groups’ SES and how interracial relations will unfold between 2013 and 2018 and in three alternative stylized scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Goran Dominioni & Addolorata Marasco & Alessandro Romano, 2018. "A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1929-1956, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0581-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-017-0581-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-017-0581-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-017-0581-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lakka, Spyridoula & Michalakelis, Christos & Varoutas, Dimitris & Martakos, Draculis, 2013. "Competitive dynamics in the operating systems market: Modeling and policy implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 88-105.
    2. Harry J. Holzer & Keith R. Ihlanfeldt, 1998. "Customer Discrimination and Employment Outcomes for Minority Workers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 835-867.
    3. Chiang, Su-Yun, 2012. "An application of Lotka–Volterra model to Taiwan's transition from 200mm to 300mm silicon wafers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 383-392.
    4. Kenneth Couch & Robert Fairlie, 2010. "Last hired, first fired? black-white unemployment and the business cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 227-247, February.
    5. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-1061.
    6. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
    7. Christopher D. DeSante, 2013. "Working Twice as Hard to Get Half as Far: Race, Work Ethic, and America’s Deserving Poor," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(2), pages 342-356, April.
    8. Bernard L. Fraga, 2016. "Candidates or Districts? Reevaluating the Role of Race in Voter Turnout," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(1), pages 97-122, January.
    9. Regina P. Branton & Bradford S. Jones, 2005. "Reexamining Racial Attitudes: The Conditional Relationship Between Diversity and Socioeconomic Environment," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 359-372, April.
    10. Modis, Theodore, 1999. "Technological Forecasting at the Stock Market," OSF Preprints ctd6s, Center for Open Science.
    11. Neal, Derek A & Johnson, William R, 1996. "The Role of Premarket Factors in Black-White Wage Differences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 869-895, October.
    12. Amalia R. Miller & Carmit Segal, 2012. "Does Temporary Affirmative Action Produce Persistent Effects? A Study of Black and Female Employment in Law Enforcement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1107-1125, November.
    13. Roland G. Fryer, Jr. & Devah Pager & Jörg L. Spenkuch, 2013. "Racial Disparities in Job Finding and Offered Wages," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 633-689.
    14. Patrick Bayer & Robert McMillan, 2005. "Racial Sorting and Neighborhood Quality," NBER Working Papers 11813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Duan, Hong-Bo & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2014. "A cross-country study on the relationship between diffusion of wind and photovoltaic solar technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 156-169.
    16. Cerqueti, Roy & Tramontana, Fabio & Ventura, Marco, 2015. "On the coexistence of innovators and imitators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 487-496.
    17. De Castro, A.B. & Gee, G.C. & Takeuchi, D.T., 2008. "Workplace discrimination and health among Filipinos in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(3), pages 520-526.
    18. Krieger, N. & Sidney, S., 1996. "Racial discrimination and blood pressure: The CARDIA study of young black and white adults," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 86(10), pages 1370-1378.
    19. Mark Hayward & Melonie Heron, 1999. "Racial inequality in active life among adult americans," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(1), pages 77-91, February.
    20. Dong, Congli & Schoups, Gerrit & van de Giesen, Nick, 2013. "Scenario development for water resource planning and management: A review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 749-761.
    21. Reimers, Cordelia W, 1983. "Labor Market Discrimination against Hispanic and Black Men," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 570-579, November.
    22. Lin, Chiun-Sin, 2013. "Forecasting and analyzing the competitive diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan with limited historical data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 207-213.
    23. Marasco, A. & Picucci, A. & Romano, A., 2016. "Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 49-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goran Dominioni & Alberto Quintavalla & Alessandro Romano, 2020. "Trust spillovers among national and European institutions," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(2), pages 276-293, June.
    2. Chiara Natalie Focacci, 2023. "Old versus young: How much do countries spend on social benefits? Deterministic modeling for government expenditure," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 363-377, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Addolorata Marasco & Alessandro Romano, 2018. "Deterministic modeling in scenario forecasting: estimating the effects of two public policies on intergenerational conflict," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2345-2371, September.
    2. Marasco, A. & Picucci, A. & Romano, A., 2016. "Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 49-62.
    3. Gatabazi, P. & Mba, J.C. & Pindza, E. & Labuschagne, C., 2019. "Grey Lotka–Volterra models with application to cryptocurrencies adoption," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 47-57.
    4. Xiaoxia Fu & Ping Zhang & Juzhi Zhang, 2017. "Forecasting and Analyzing Internet Users of China with Lotka–Volterra Model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(01), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Jamie H. Douglas & Michael D. Steinberger, 2015. "The Sexual Orientation Wage Gap for Racial Minorities," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 59-108, January.
    7. Bond, Timothy N. & Lehmann, Jee-Yeon K., 2018. "Prejudice and racial matches in employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 271-293.
    8. John Baffoe-Bonnie & Anthony O. Gyapong, 2011. "Black--white wage differentials: duration and probability unemployment effects in a multiple of sample selection bias model," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 559-584, September.
    9. Antecol, Heather & Bedard, Kelly, 2002. "The Racial Wage Gap: The Importance of Labor Force Attachment Differences," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7cb6q4m9, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    10. Winters, John V. & Hirsch, Barry, 2012. "An Anatomy of Racial and Ethnic Trends in Male Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 6766, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. John S. Heywood & Daniel Parent, 2012. "Performance Pay and the White-Black Wage Gap," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(2), pages 249-290.
    12. Lex Borghans & Bas Ter Weel & Bruce A. Weinberg, 2014. "People Skills and the Labor-Market Outcomes of Underrepresented Groups," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 67(2), pages 287-334, April.
    13. Victoria Gregory & Julian Kozlowski & Hannah Rubinton, 2022. "The Impact of Racial Segregation on College Attainment in Spatial Equilibrium," Working Papers 2022-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 24 Jul 2023.
    14. Jean-Baptiste Vilain, 2018. "Three essays in applied economics [Trois essais en économie appliquée]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03419493, HAL.
    15. Mieko Yoshihama & Jun Sung Hong & Yueqi Yan, 2022. "Everyday Discrimination and Depressive Symptoms among Gujarati Adults: Gender Difference in the Role of Social Support," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-13, July.
    16. Romain Aeberhardt & Élise Coudin & Roland Rathelot, 2017. "The heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 307-337, January.
    17. Cai, Zhengyu & Maguire, Karen & Winters, John V., 2019. "Who benefits from local oil and gas employment? Labor market composition in the oil and gas industry in Texas and the rest of the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Olivier Baguelin, 2005. "Understanding socio-demographic disparities in the labor market: the case for a motivation-based theory," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00196132, HAL.
    19. Vladimir Avetian, 2022. "Essays in economics of discrimination and diversity [Essais sur l’économie de la discrimination et de la diversité]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03858054, HAL.
    20. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Bradley, Jake & Tarasonis, Linas, 2018. "Racial discrimination in the U.S. labor market: Employment and wage differentials by skill," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-66.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0581-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.