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Candidates or Districts? Reevaluating the Role of Race in Voter Turnout

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  • Bernard L. Fraga

Abstract

Leading theories of race and participation posit that minority voters are mobilized by co‐ethnic candidates. However, past studies are unable to disentangle candidate effects from factors associated with the places from which candidates emerge. I reevaluate the links between candidate race, district composition, and turnout by leveraging a nationwide database of over 185 million individual registration records, including estimates for the race of every voter. Combining these records with detailed information about 3,000 recent congressional primary and general election candidates, I find that minority turnout is not higher in districts with minority candidates, after accounting for the relative size of the ethnic group within a district. Instead, Black and Latino citizens are more likely to vote in both primary and general elections as their share of the population increases, regardless of candidate race.

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  • Bernard L. Fraga, 2016. "Candidates or Districts? Reevaluating the Role of Race in Voter Turnout," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(1), pages 97-122, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:60:y:2016:i:1:p:97-122
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    2. Riker, William H. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1968. "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 25-42, March.
    3. Riker, William H. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1968. "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 25-42, March.
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    5. Jason Abrevaya & Jerry A. Hausman, 1999. "Semiparametric Estimation with Mismeasured Dependent Variables: An Application to Duration Models for Unemployment Spells," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 243-275.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons, 2021. "Strict Id Laws Don’t Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2615-2660.
    2. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & José R. Bucheli, 2023. "Immigration Policy and Hispanic Representation in National Elections," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 815-844, June.
    3. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Bucheli, Jose R., 2020. "Immigration Policy and Hispanics' Willingness to Run for Office," IZA Discussion Papers 13698, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Goran Dominioni & Addolorata Marasco & Alessandro Romano, 2018. "A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1929-1956, July.
    5. Fan Lu, 2020. "The Dual Identity of Asian Americans," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1869-1884, September.

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