Did political constraints bind during transition? Evidence from Czech elections 1990 - 2002
Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become “winners” or “losers” of transition. Using survey data we measure the percentage of individuals by region who were “afraid” and “not afraid” of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential “winners” who should vote for pro-reform parties, while latter are potential “losers” who should support left-wing parties. Using national election results and regional economic indicators, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro-reform and communist parties driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. As a result, we show that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of regional voting patterns in 1990.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Trinity College, Dublin 2|
Phone: (+ 353 1) 6081325
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dewatripont, Mathias & Roland, Gerard, 1995.
"The Design of Reform Packages under Uncertainty,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1207-1223, December.
- Dewatripont, Mathias & Roland, Gérard, 1993. "The Design of Reform Packages Under Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mathias Dewatripont & Gérard Roland, 1995. "The design of reform packages under uncertainty," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9607, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Alexandre Rekine & Patrick Paul Walsh, 1998. "European Trade and Foreign Direct Investment. U-Shaping Industrial Output in Central and Eastern Europe: Theory and Evidence," LICOS Discussion Papers 7398, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Patrick P. Walsh & Alexander Repkine, 1998. "European Trade and Foreign Direct Investment U-Shaping Industrial Output in Central and Eastern Europe; Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/150, .
- Jackson, John E., 2002. "A Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model for Analyzing Multiparty Elections," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 49-65, December.
- Valev, Neven, 2004. "No pain, no gain: market reform, unemployment, and politics in Bulgaria," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 409-425, September.
- Neven Valev, 2003. "No Pain, No Gain: Market Reform, Unemployment, and Politics in Bulgaria," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0310, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Neven Valev, 2003. "No Pain, No Gain: Market Reform, Unemployment, and Politics in Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-577, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2004. "Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Migrant Voting Behaviour," CEPR Discussion Papers 4619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fidrmuc, Jan & Doyle, Orla, 2005. "Voice of the diaspora: An analysis of migrant voting behavior," ZEI Working Papers B 02-2005, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Jan Fidrmuc & Orla Doyle, 2004. "Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Migrant Voting Behavior," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-714, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Orla Doyle & Jan Fidrmuc, 2005. "Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Market Voting Behaviour," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp042, IIIS.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
- Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political Support for Reforms : Economics of Voting in Transition Countries," Discussion Paper 1998-98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Palmer, Harvey D. & Whitten, Guy D., 1999. "The Electoral Impact of Unexpected Inflation and Economic Growth," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 623-639, September.
- Gérard Roland, 2002. "The Political Economy of Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-50, Winter. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:2000515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Patricia Hughes)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.